Serie A 2025-2026: Milan vs Udinese Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Milan

Home Team
73%
VS

Udinese

Away Team
12%
Draw: 14%
Over 2.5: 51%
Under 2.5: 49%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Milan L W L W W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)

Udinese D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Milan

xG (avg) 1.65
xGA (avg) 1.28
Clean Sheets 2

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.02
xGA (avg) 1.50
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are clear favourites at San Siro with a 73.0% chance of victory against 11th-placed Udinese, while the visitors are given just a 12.0% shot and the draw sits at 14.0%. The model points firmly towards a home win for 3rd-placed Milan. The over 2.5 prediction is also on the aggressive side, with a 51.0% probability of at least three goals in the game.

Match Analysis

Milan come into this with mixed recent results but generally strong underlying numbers. They edged Torino 3-2 at home in an open contest, sandwiched between narrow 1-0 away defeats to Napoli and Lazio. Even in those losses, Milan produced 17 shots at Lazio and 7 at Napoli, suggesting they are still creating chances, just not converting consistently. Defensively, they have allowed only 0.8 goals per game over their last five and kept two clean sheets, backed by an average of 1.28 expected goals conceded – solid if not completely watertight. Udinese arrive as a dangerous but inconsistent mid-table side. Their last three matches show a 2-0 away win at Genoa despite being out-shot 18-6, a 0-0 home draw with Como, and a narrow 1-0 home defeat to Juventus. The pattern is clear: they are comfortable without the ball and rely on efficiency in both boxes. Over their last five, they have scored 1.6 goals per game but from just 1.02 expected goals on average, while conceding 1.2 goals from 1.502 expected goals conceded. That gap hints at a team slightly overperforming in attack and living on the edge defensively.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an over 2.5 prediction at 51.0%, but it is a marginal call rather than a certainty. Only one of Milan’s last three league games has gone over 2.5 goals (the 3-2 against Torino), with the other two ending 1-0. Udinese have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (0-0 vs Como, 0-1 vs Juventus), with just the 2-0 win at Genoa close to the line. Milan’s average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Udinese’s 1.6 scored and 1.2 conceded, suggest there is enough firepower for three goals if finishing matches the xG profiles.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Milan
Corners in last 5 matches
Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.27, which points to a moderate corners prediction, roughly in line with what both sides have been posting. Milan’s last three have produced 7, 10 and 10 corners respectively, driven by their tendency to push high and rack up attempts from wide areas. Udinese’s last three matches show corner counts of 8, 8 and 8, consistent with a team that often defends deep but still breaks to earn set-pieces. Over 90 minutes, Milan’s territorial dominance and Udinese’s counter-attacks should combine to reach something close to the expected total.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Milan
Shots in last 5 matches
Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure stands at 24.98, suggesting a lively game in and around both penalty areas. Milan’s last three outings have seen them register 7, 15 and 17 shots, while allowing 10, 19 and 7 – numbers consistent with a high-tempo side that both creates and concedes attempts. Udinese, meanwhile, have taken 14, 6 and 10 shots and faced 12, 18 and 22, which fits a pattern where they usually allow more efforts than they generate. Given both teams’ xG trends and these recent volumes, the shots prediction around 25 total attempts looks well calibrated.

Final Prediction

Milan’s superior league position, stronger defensive record and home advantage give them a clear edge, which aligns with the 73.0% win probability. Udinese’s recent resilience and knack for clean sheets mean this won’t be a formality, but their underlying numbers suggest they could struggle to contain Milan over 90 minutes. A key factor to watch will be how quickly Milan turn their expected chances into goals; if they strike early, the game could open up exactly as the predictions anticipate.

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