Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Bologna Prediction - 11 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Napoli

Home Team
60%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 23.4
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Napoli D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)

Bologna D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.62
xGA (avg) 1.27
Clean Sheets 3

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 0.91
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 60.0% chance of victory against Bologna’s 20.0% and a 20.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win in a relatively tight contest, with a predicted goal spread of +0.46 in Napoli’s favour. In the table, Napoli sit 2nd on 70 points, chasing Inter, while Bologna are 9th with 49 points and still in the mix for a top-half finish. The goals model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome despite a 51.0% chance both teams score.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this on a mixed but generally solid run. Their last three matches show a dominant 4-0 home win over Cremonese sandwiched between a 0-0 at Como and a 0-2 home defeat to Lazio. That sequence underlines an improving defensive base – two clean sheets in three – but also a certain inconsistency in the final third. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed by 1.616 expected goals (xG) created and 1.272 xG allowed, plus three clean sheets, which suggests they usually control matches even when the scoreline doesn’t fully reflect it. Bologna, 9th but only three points off 6th, have hit a sticky patch at the wrong time: back‑to‑back 0-2 defeats to Roma and Juventus, preceded by a 0-0 home draw with Cagliari. Three straight matches without scoring is the stark headline. Yet the broader numbers over their last five fixtures are more balanced: 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average, with 1.15 xG for and only 0.908 xG against, plus two clean sheets. They remain structurally sound, but the recent lack of cutting edge is a concern heading to a top‑two side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is edged out here by the model’s call for under 2.5 goals, with a probability of 54.0% implied by the 46.0% chance of it going over. Two of Napoli’s last three matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-0 vs Como, 0-2 vs Lazio), with only the 4-0 against Cremonese going over. All three of Bologna’s most recent games have ended under 2.5, and they haven’t scored in that spell. Given Napoli’s 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game and Bologna’s 1.2 / 0.8, alongside moderate xG figures for both, an under 2.5 outcome fits the pattern of cautious, narrow contests.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with 8.97 total corners expected in this match. Napoli’s last three have produced 5, 12 and 15 corners respectively (they earned 2, 7 and 12), showing that when they dominate territory at home, corner counts can spike. Bologna’s games have seen 9, 14 and 7 corners (they earned 7, 7 and 1), suggesting they can generate flags when on the front foot but may be pinned back away to stronger teams. With Napoli likely to carry more of the attacking load, the predicted corners total just under nine suits a game where the home side probes but Bologna don’t open up recklessly.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.42 expected shots in total, consistent with a tactical but not end‑to‑end affair. Napoli’s recent shot numbers have been 8 at Como, a huge 25 against Cremonese and 12 versus Lazio – strong evidence that at home, they are prepared to pepper the goal. Bologna, meanwhile, have taken 13, 10 and 7 shots across their last three, while allowing 8, 7 and 14. Those profiles, combined with both teams’ xG averages, back up the expected shots figure: Napoli should outshoot Bologna, but not by a margin that suggests a goalfest.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Napoli wins by X goals. Negative = Bologna wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Napoli vs Bologna with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Napoli vs Bologna
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction of +0.46 for Napoli captures expectations of a narrow home win rather than a rout. Over their last three, Napoli’s goal differences read +0, +4 and -2, highlighting a capacity to blow weaker sides away but also to be caught out by better-organised opponents. Bologna’s recent run of 0-0, 0-2 and 0-2 reflects a -4 combined goal difference, heavily influenced by their scoring drought. When this is linked to the 60.0% home‑win probability and both teams’ relatively tight defensive numbers, the expected spread points towards Napoli edging a low‑margin contest.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s stronger league position, superior recent scoring record and home advantage give them a clear, if not overwhelming, edge over a Bologna side that has suddenly gone cold in front of goal. Bologna’s defensive structure should keep them competitive, but unless their attack wakes up, the balance tips towards the hosts. The key factor to watch will be Napoli’s ability to turn territorial dominance and higher shot volume into goals against a Bologna team built to frustrate.

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