Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Cremonese Prediction - 24 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Napoli

Home Team
69%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
15%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 53%
Under 2.5: 47%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: +1.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Napoli L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)

Cremonese D L L W L

  • Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 4)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 2

Cremonese

xG (avg) 0.61
xGA (avg) 1.84
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are strong favourites here, with a 69.0% probability of a home win against a Cremonese side battling near the bottom. The visitors have just a 15.0% chance of an upset, with the draw at 16.0%. The model leans towards an over 2.5 prediction on goals at 53.0%, and this is a meeting between third-placed Napoli (66 points) and 17th-placed Cremonese (28 points), two teams living very different seasons.

Match Analysis

Napoli come in from a mixed but generally solid run: a 1-0 home win over Milan, a 1-1 draw at Parma and a flat 0-2 home defeat to Lazio. They have been creating enough to edge games, as shown by 20 shots away to Parma and 10 against Milan, but the Lazio loss highlighted some attacking inconsistency and defensive vulnerability. Over the last five matches, they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, with an xG of 1.07 for and 1.57 against, suggesting they have sometimes been more efficient in front of goal than the underlying chances would indicate. Cremonese, stuck in the relegation scrap in 17th, arrive with far less momentum: a 0-0 home draw with Torino, followed by defeats to Cagliari (0-1 away) and Bologna (1-2 at home). They have struggled badly in front of goal, scoring only once across those three fixtures and averaging 0.8 goals over their last five, with a very low 0.61 xG per game. Defensively they concede 1.6 goals and 1.84 xG on average, which underlines a side regularly on the back foot and often giving up high-quality chances.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s over 2.5 prediction comes with a modest 53.0% edge towards a more open scoreline. Recent form is tight, though: all three of Napoli’s latest games finished under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-1, 0-2), while two of Cremonese’s last three also stayed under (0-0, 0-1, 1-2). On averages, Napoli’s 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded, combined with Cremonese’s 0.8 for and 1.6 against and their respective xG profiles, hint at a match that could push either side of the 2.5 line but slightly favours a scenario where Napoli’s superior attack eventually stretches the scoreline.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.52 total corners, which matches the idea of Napoli dictating territory without it becoming a siege. Napoli’s last three outings produced corner counts of 12-0 vs Lazio, 7-3 at Parma and 4-3 vs Milan, underlining how often they pin opponents back, especially at home. Cremonese have been less dominant but still involved in decent corner totals (6-1 vs Torino, 5-6 at Cagliari, 2-4 vs Bologna), suggesting that while they may spend long spells defending, they can still contribute to the predicted corners tally through counter-attacks and set pieces.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 24.68 indicates a busy afternoon for both goalkeepers, with Napoli likely taking the larger share. Napoli’s recent shot counts – 12 vs Lazio, 20 at Parma, 10 against Milan – show a side that regularly gets into shooting positions, and this aligns with their 1.07 xG average. Cremonese, by contrast, have mustered 14, 5 and 9 shots in their last three, facing 4, 17 and 14 respectively, backing up a shots prediction where Napoli’s pressure and Cremonese’s vulnerability fit the expected shots total.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Napoli wins by X goals. Negative = Cremonese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Napoli vs Cremonese with expected spread of +1.0
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Napoli vs Cremonese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction has Napoli favoured by +1.04 goals, essentially projecting them to win by about a single goal, perhaps two if they take their chances. Over their last three, Napoli’s goal differences have been -2, 0 and +1, modest but generally positive, while Cremonese show -2 across the same period (0-0, 0-1, 1-2), consistently on the wrong side of tight margins. That expected spread dovetails neatly with the 69.0% home-win probability and the clear gap between Napoli’s more reliable attack and Cremonese’s fragile defence.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s higher league position, stronger attacking numbers and home advantage give them a clear edge, even if they have not been free-scoring in the very recent past. Cremonese’s low xG and struggle to convert half-chances make an upset look unlikely. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Napoli can turn territorial dominance into goals; if they score early, the match could easily tilt towards the predicted home win and an over 2.5 outcome.

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