Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Lazio Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Napoli

Home Team
65%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 24.3

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Napoli D W W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)

Lazio L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.45
xGA (avg) 1.30
Clean Sheets 2

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.29
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 65.0% probability of victory against a Lazio side given just a 17.0% chance, and an 18.0% likelihood of a draw. The model points towards a tight contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction, despite Napoli sitting 2nd and chasing Inter, while Lazio are 9th and fighting simply to stay in European contention rather than the top four.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this fixture in quietly efficient form. They’re unbeaten in their last three league games, with away wins at Cagliari (1-0) and a statement home victory over Milan (1-0), followed by a 1-1 draw at Parma. Those results underline a side that is controlling matches without blowing opponents away: they’ve allowed just one goal in those three outings and have consistently out-shot their rivals (20-3 at Parma, 17-7 at Cagliari, 10-7 vs Milan). Over the last five games, Napoli have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, backed by solid underlying numbers (1.448 xG for, 1.298 xG against per match) and two clean sheets. Lazio, by contrast, look less convincing in attack. They have one win, one draw and one defeat in their last three – beating Bologna 2-0 away, drawing 1-1 at home to Parma and losing 0-1 at Fiorentina. They’ve scored just 0.8 goals per game across their last five, while conceding 1.0, with xG figures (1.164 for, 1.288 against) that suggest they’re not creating a great volume of high-quality chances. That combination of Napoli’s sharper edge and Lazio’s blunter attack is a big reason why the home side are clear favourites.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, with a 48.0% probability that the game produces two goals or fewer and no strong push from the model towards a goal-fest. All three of Napoli’s recent matches have finished with under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-0, 1-1), and it’s the same for Lazio, whose last three also stayed under (0-1, 1-1, 2-0). Both teams’ average goals scored and conceded – combined with modest xG figures on each side – back an under 2.5 prediction rather than an open, end-to-end shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 8.82, pointing to a game with a steady but not extreme number of set-piece situations. Napoli’s last three have produced 7-3, 4-3 and 7-2 in corners, showing they can pin teams back and rack up numbers from wide areas. Lazio’s recent corner figures – 6-5, 7-2 and 1-2 – are more mixed, suggesting a side that doesn’t consistently dominate territory. Put together, the corners prediction fits a match where Napoli’s more proactive approach likely generates slightly more corners, but not an overwhelming flood.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 24.26, indicating a match with a decent volume of attempts but not relentless bombardment. Napoli have been consistently productive in this department, taking 20, 10 and 17 shots in their last three, while allowing very little at Parma (3 shots conceded) and Cagliari (7). Lazio’s shot numbers are more erratic – 13, 7 and 9 taken, with 8, 7 and 15 faced – underlining a team that can be pushed back for long spells. These patterns line up with the shots prediction: Napoli should generate enough efforts to reflect their superior xG profile, without necessarily turning the game into a shooting gallery.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge lies in their balance: they’re creating more, conceding less and turning that control into points, while Lazio’s attack has been too light to inspire confidence away from home. With the home side stronger in both recent results and underlying numbers, they look well placed to grind out another narrow win. The key factor to watch will be whether Lazio can raise their chance creation against a tight Napoli defence; if they can’t, the home side’s efficiency should decide it.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel