Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Lecce Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Napoli

Home Team
95%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 47%
No Goal: 53%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.6

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Napoli W W L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)

Lecce W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.43
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 0

Lecce

xG (avg) 0.66
xGA (avg) 2.41
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are overwhelming favourites here, with a 95.0% probability of victory against a Lecce side given just a 2.0% chance, and a 3.0% likelihood of a draw. Third in Serie A on 56 points, Napoli are pushing to secure the Champions League places, while 16th‑placed Lecce sit on 27 points and remain uncomfortably close to the relegation fight. The model also leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction, with a 44.0% chance of the game going over and therefore a slight edge on a tighter, low‑scoring home win.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this with two wins from their last three league matches: 2-1 at home to Torino and 2-1 away at Verona, either side of a 2-1 defeat at Atalanta. Those three games show a consistent attacking output – exactly two goals scored in each – and a team that tends to control territory, with big corner advantages against Torino (11-2) and Verona (5-2). Even in the loss to Atalanta they matched shots 10-10, underlining that their performance levels have stayed relatively stable despite the result. Lecce, by contrast, have taken just one win from their last three, beating fellow struggler Cremonese 2-1 but losing 3-1 at Como and 2-0 at home to leaders Inter. The shot and corner numbers tell an even starker story: heavily outgunned by Inter (3 shots to 24, 2 corners to 10) and second best again at Como (5-12 shots, 1-5 corners). Advanced metrics back up this imbalance: Lecce average only 0.6 goals and 0.66 expected goals per game over their last five, while conceding 1.2 goals and a hefty 2.406 expected goals. Napoli, meanwhile, are at 1.4 goals scored with 1.43 xG created and just 0.8 conceded (1.16 xG against), numbers that underline a stronger, more balanced side at both ends.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 goals prediction is supported by the style and recent numbers, even though all of Napoli’s last three games finished 2-1 (so 3/3 over 2.5). Lecce have been involved in one under and two overs in their last three (2-1, 1-3, 0-2), but their low attacking averages – 0.6 goals and 0.66 xG per game – point towards limited threat. Taken together with Napoli’s solid defence (0.8 goals conceded, 1.16 xG against), a controlled Napoli win without a goal glut fits the under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction is set at 9.2 total, hinting at a game with pressure but not relentless end‑to‑end action. Napoli’s last three have produced 11, 7 and just 7 corners, with the hosts usually on the front foot: 11-2 vs Torino, 5-2 at Verona, then only 1-6 at Atalanta in a more reactive display. Lecce’s recent matches have seen 8, 6 and 12 corners, but they tend to concede far more than they win, especially against stronger sides like Inter (2-10). With Napoli expected to dominate territory, the predicted corners number feels consistent with a home side probing steadily rather than attacking chaotically.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 23.58 suggests a match where Napoli generate the bulk of the chances while Lecce struggle to create. Napoli have hit 14, 9 and 10 shots in their last three, generally keeping their volume around double figures in line with their 1.43 xG average. Lecce’s recent shot counts of 9, 5 and 3 – alongside a very modest 0.66 xG – signal limited attacking punch, especially against higher‑quality opposition. This shots prediction aligns with a pattern of Napoli pressure, moderate chance volume, and Lecce mainly defending.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge comes from their superior league position, more reliable attack and tighter defensive metrics, all backed by a huge 95.0% win probability. Lecce’s low xG and tendency to be outshot and outcornered by stronger teams make an upset unlikely. The key factor to watch will be how early Napoli can turn their territorial dominance into a goal; if they score first, everything about the numbers points to them closing the game down and seeing out a professional, controlled win.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel