Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Milan Prediction - 6 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Napoli

Home Team
50%
VS

Milan

Away Team
26%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Napoli W W W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)

Milan W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.40
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 1

Milan

xG (avg) 2.23
xGA (avg) 1.03
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are slight favourites at home, with a 50.0% chance of victory compared to Milan’s 26.0%, and a draw at 23.0%. The model points to a home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction, suggesting a tight contest despite both sides’ attacking quality. In the table, Milan sit 2nd on 63 points, just one point ahead of 3rd‑placed Napoli on 62, so this is effectively a shootout for position behind Inter.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this on a three‑match winning streak, grinding out results rather than blowing teams away. They edged Cagliari 1-0 away, then beat Lecce and Torino 2-1 at home, showing a knack for staying on the front foot — they won the corner count comfortably against both Cagliari (7-2) and Torino (11-2). Across their last five games they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG figures (1.396 for, 1.36 against) pointing to relatively balanced games that they’ve been managing to tilt in their favour. Milan’s recent form is almost as strong: two wins and one defeat from their last three, but with a slightly more controlled defensive profile. They beat Torino 3-2 in a wild game, lost 1-0 away to Lazio despite dominating corners and shots, then beat Inter 1-0 in a tight derby. Over their last five matches they’ve averaged 1.6 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, backed up by impressive xG numbers: 2.228 for and just 1.028 against. That suggests Milan are consistently creating more than their opponents, even if the raw scorelines have been tight.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 51.0% implied probability (49.0% for over), and expects a low‑scoring home win. Recent form offers a mixed picture: 2 out of Napoli’s last 3 matches went over 2.5 goals (2-1, 2-1), while 2 of Milan’s last 3 stayed under 2.5 (1-0 vs Inter, 0-1 at Lazio). Still, both teams’ averages — Napoli at 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded, Milan at 1.6 scored and 0.6 conceded, with xG slightly tighter than the actual goals — support an under 2.5 outcome in a cautious, high‑stakes clash.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.14 total corners, which fits with the recent numbers. Napoli’s last three games produced 9, 14 and 13 total corners, with Napoli particularly strong at forcing corners against Torino (11) and Cagliari (7). Milan’s matches were a bit more varied — 10, 10 and 7 total corners — but they also tend to rack up set‑piece opportunities, especially in that 9-1 corner domination at Lazio. With both sides comfortable attacking from wide areas, the predicted corners figure around nine looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.12, suggesting a match with regular efforts on goal but not an end‑to‑end shootout. Napoli’s last three have seen them take 17, 12 and 14 shots, while allowing 7, 12 and 7 — generally out‑shooting their opponents. Milan’s recent games were similarly lively: 15, 17 and 9 attempts, conceding 19, 7 and 11. Those volumes line up neatly with Milan’s strong attacking xG of 2.228 per game, making a shots prediction in the mid‑20s a natural fit.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge comes from home advantage and recent momentum, backed by a slight statistical tilt in their favour, even if Milan’s underlying xG profile is excellent. The battle between Napoli’s volume of chances and Milan’s tight defensive record (just 0.6 goals conceded on average in the last five) will likely decide it. Watch the midfield duel and how quickly each side can turn regained possession into shots — that should tell us early which way this finely balanced game will swing.

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