Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Roma Prediction - 15 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Napoli

Home Team
39%
VS

Roma

Away Team
35%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 23.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Napoli W W L W D

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)

Roma W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.61
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.94
# Clean Sheets: 2

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.38
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.49
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are narrowly favoured to win at home with a 39.0% probability, edging a Roma side rated at 35.0%, with the draw at 25.0%. The model points to a tight Napoli victory and an under 2.5 goals prediction (43.0% chance of over 2.5, so a slight lean to the under), fitting for a clash between the 3rd‑placed hosts (49 points) and 5th‑placed visitors (46 points) in a congested Serie A top‑four race.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this on the back of two wins and one defeat in their last three matches. They edged Genoa 3-2 away in a chaotic five-goal game, followed by a controlled 2-1 home win over Fiorentina, before being soundly beaten 3-0 by Juventus in Turin. Across the last five matches they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, with xG numbers (1.61 for, 0.938 against) suggesting their underlying performances have generally been strong, backed by two clean sheets in that span. Roma’s recent form is steadier but slightly less explosive in attack: a 2-0 home win over Cagliari, a narrow 1-0 defeat away to Udinese, and a 1-1 draw at home to Milan. That run underlines a resilient side that keeps games tight, conceding only two goals across those three fixtures, in line with their last‑five average of 0.8 goals conceded and three clean sheets. However, Roma’s xG conceded (1.494 per game) is higher than their actual goals against, hinting they may be allowing more chances than the scores suggest, while scoring just 1.0 per game despite a 1.376 xG average.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction given only a 43.0% probability, indicating a slightly stronger expectation of a low-scoring contest. Napoli’s last three games have produced mixed totals: one clear over (3-2 vs Genoa) and two matches finishing exactly on 3 goals (2-1 vs Fiorentina, 0-3 vs Juventus), so only one truly high-scoring edge. Roma, meanwhile, have had all three recent matches at or under 2.5 goals (2-0, 0-1, 1-1). With both sides averaging around 1–1.4 goals scored and under 1.0 conceded, and xG figures clustered in the same range, the under 2.5 call fits the recent pattern.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots for this match is 23.47, a sensible shots prediction for a high‑stakes Serie A clash. Napoli’s recent games have featured 26, 34 and 21 total shots, showing they are generally involved in chance‑rich contests, particularly at home. Roma’s last three saw 18, 18 and 20 shots in total, slightly more restrained but still competitive. When you align those numbers with Napoli’s higher attacking xG (1.61) and Roma’s solid 1.376 xG, the expected shots figure just below the mid‑20s feels well supported.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s slight edge comes from their stronger attacking metrics, home advantage and marginally better balance between chances created and allowed. Roma’s defensive resilience keeps them firmly in the game, but their underlying xG conceded raises questions over whether they can continue to bend without breaking. A tight contest is likely, and the key factor to watch will be whether Napoli’s attack can convert their territorial and shooting edge into the single decisive goal that the model expects.

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