Serie A 2025-2026: Napoli vs Torino Prediction - 6 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Napoli

Home Team
87%
VS

Torino

Away Team
5%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Shots: 25.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 27 22 1 4 64 21 43 67
2 Milan 27 16 9 2 43 20 23 57
3 Napoli 27 16 5 6 41 28 13 53
4 Roma 27 16 3 8 37 19 18 51
5 Como 27 13 9 5 44 20 24 48
6 Juventus 27 13 8 6 46 28 18 47
7 Atalanta 27 12 9 6 37 24 13 45
8 Bologna 27 11 6 10 36 32 4 39
9 Sassuolo 27 11 5 11 34 36 -2 38
10 Udinese 27 10 5 12 31 39 -8 35
11 Lazio 27 8 10 9 26 27 -1 34
12 Parma 27 8 9 10 20 32 -12 33
13 Cagliari 27 7 9 11 29 36 -7 30
14 Torino 27 8 6 13 27 47 -20 30
15 Genoa 27 6 9 12 32 39 -7 27
16 Fiorentina 27 5 9 13 30 42 -12 24
17 Cremonese 27 5 9 13 21 38 -17 24
18 Lecce 27 6 6 15 18 36 -18 24
19 Pisa 27 1 12 14 20 44 -24 15
20 Verona 27 2 9 16 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Napoli W L D W W

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)

Torino W L L D W

  • Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.28
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.28
# Clean Sheets: 0

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.90
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.86
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are strong favourites here, with an 87.0% probability of taking all three points against a Torino side given just a 5.0% chance, and the draw at 8.0%. The model leans towards a home win in a relatively tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Napoli sitting 3rd in Serie A and Torino down in 14th. Given the league positions and recent numbers, anything other than a Napoli victory would be a major surprise.

Match Analysis

Napoli come into this on the back of a mixed but competitive run: a 2-1 win away at Verona, a narrow 2-1 defeat at Atalanta, and a 2-2 draw at home to Roma. They’ve been in every game, scoring in each of their last three and creating enough chances to stay among the leading pack at the top of the table with 53 points. Their last five matches show an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with expected goals both for and against sitting at 1.28. That balance hints at a side generally in control, but without blowing teams away. Torino, 14th on 30 points and with a goal difference of -20, have been far more volatile. A deserved 2-0 home win over Lazio is sandwiched between a 3-0 collapse at Genoa and a 2-1 home defeat to Bologna. Defensively, they’ve struggled recently: an average of 2.6 goals conceded across their last five, with xG against at 1.858, underlines how often they are allowing good chances. Going forward, they average just 1.0 scored and 0.904 xG in that same spell, which is modest attacking output for a team heading to a top‑three side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The model calls this as under 2.5 with a probability of 48.0%, edging out the over 2.5 prediction despite Napoli’s attacking quality. Two of Napoli’s last three games (2-1 v Verona, 2-1 v Atalanta) went over 2.5 goals, with the 2-2 draw against Roma also clearing the line, but their averages of 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, along with symmetrical 1.28 xG for and against, point to controlled rather than wild contests. Torino, meanwhile, have seen all three of their recent matches finish with exactly three goals, but their low xG for (0.904) and heavy xG against (1.858) suggest they may struggle to contribute heavily on the scoresheet away from home, supporting the under 2.5 call.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total of 25.48 hints at a game where Napoli apply sustained pressure without it becoming a free-for-all. Napoli’s last three outings have produced 9, 10 and 11 shots respectively, while allowing 8, 10 and 9, numbers that fit neatly with the shots prediction. Torino’s shot volumes have been lower and more erratic – 13 against Lazio, but only 7 at Genoa and 7 against Bologna – reflecting their reliance on fewer, often lower‑quality chances, which is echoed by their 0.904 average xG. Put together, the expected shots tally points to Napoli generating the better openings while Torino struggle to match them in quantity or quality.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s superiority in league position, recent results, and more balanced xG profile gives them a clear edge, especially at home. Torino’s frail defence and limited attacking numbers make an upset unlikely, even if they can be dangerous in moments. The key factor to watch will be how quickly Napoli can turn territorial dominance and a likely shots advantage into goals; if they strike early, Torino may find it very hard to stay in the game.

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