Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Cagliari Prediction - 27 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Parma

Home Team
44%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
29%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Shots: 25.2

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Parma W W W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 4)

Cagliari D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.95
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.96
# Clean Sheets: 2

Cagliari

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.13
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.05
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Parma are slight favourites at home with a 44.0% chance of victory, ahead of Cagliari’s 29.0% and the 27.0% probability of a draw. The model points towards a tight home win and an under 2.5 goals prediction (43.0% for over 2.5, so a lean to the low-scoring side). In the table, Parma sit 12th on 32 points, just three ahead of 13th-placed Cagliari on 29, underlining how close these two are.

Match Analysis

Parma arrive in form after three straight wins, all ground out rather than spectacular. A 1-0 away success at Milan and another 1-0 at Bologna showcase a team comfortable suffering without the ball (outshot 25-9 at Milan and 16-5 at Bologna), while the 2-1 home victory over Verona showed they can dominate territorially when asked, racking up 27 shots and 12 corners. Despite this run, their recent numbers remain modest: 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average over the last five, with xG for at 0.95 and xG against at 1.958, plus two clean sheets suggesting resilience more than dominance. Cagliari, by contrast, come in off a three-game winless stretch: a 0-0 home draw with Lazio followed by 0-2 defeats to Lecce and Roma. They’ve struggled badly in the final third across those fixtures, failing to score in all three despite decent shot counts against Lazio and Lecce (11 attempts in each). Over the last five matches they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG for at 1.134 and xG against at 2.052, underlining a side that allows chances and is currently being punished. Two clean sheets in that period show they can shut games down, but the recent trend is more about defensive strain than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The call is under 2.5, in line with the model leaning away from an over 2.5 prediction despite a 43.0% chance of a higher-scoring match. Two of Parma’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (1-0 at Milan, 1-0 at Bologna), with only the 2-1 against Verona going over, while all three of Cagliari’s most recent outings ended under, and without them scoring at all. With Parma averaging just 0.8 goals for and 1.4 against, and Cagliari at 1.2 for and 1.8 against, plus both sides’ xG numbers hovering around 1–2 per game, a cagey encounter with limited scoring looks the likeliest scenario.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 25.16, which fits both teams’ recent profiles. Parma’s last three outings produced combined shot counts of 34, 31 and 21, while Cagliari’s came in at 21, 24 and 18, all in a similar band. Given each side’s xG figures just above 1.0 going forward and around 2.0 conceded, a shots prediction in the mid-20s matches the idea of a balanced game: Parma slightly more efficient and Cagliari needing volume to threaten.

Final Prediction

Parma’s edge comes from momentum and home advantage: three straight wins and a growing defensive solidity contrast with Cagliari’s three-game scoreless run and leaky back line. With both sides’ recent data pointing to tight margins rather than fireworks, the key factor to watch will be whether Parma can turn their territorial control at home into an early goal that forces Cagliari to open up.

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