Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Cremonese Prediction - 21 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Parma

Home Team
55%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.8
Expected Shots: 26.3

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Parma L D D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Cremonese L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.96
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.83
# Clean Sheets: 2

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.79
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.42
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Parma are favoured to take all three points at the Tardini, with a 55.0% probability of a home win against a struggling Cremonese side given just a 23.0% chance; the draw sits at 22.0%. The model leans towards a tight encounter rather than a shoot-out, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 56.0% implied (44.0% for over). In the table, Parma are 12th on 34 points, while Cremonese sit 18th on 24 and currently occupy a relegation spot.

Match Analysis

Parma come into this with only two points from their last three matches, but those games have followed a clear pattern: solid enough defensively in Firenze (0-0 at Fiorentina) and at home to Cagliari (1-1), but badly exposed in the 4-1 defeat at Torino. Across those fixtures they’ve scored just two goals, yet they’ve shown they can control phases of play – for example, outshooting Cagliari 18-11 and winning the corner count 6-3 at home. Their recent averages underline a cautious, low-scoring profile: 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game in the last five, with an xG of 0.96 for and 1.832 against, plus two clean sheets in that stretch. Cremonese, by contrast, arrive in Parma on a three-game losing run, and the numbers are much more alarming at the back. They’ve been beaten 4-1 by Fiorentina, 2-1 at Lecce and 2-0 at home to Milan, conceding eight goals in those three outings. The underlying figures mirror that decline: just 0.4 goals scored and a hefty 2.6 conceded per game over the last five, with xG against up at 2.416. Despite creating a reasonable volume of attempts – 13 shots against Fiorentina and 15 against Milan – their xG for is only 0.788 on average, pointing to low-quality chances and a lack of cutting edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model’s under 2.5 prediction is backed by a 56.0% probability, and the recent scorelines reinforce that view. Only one of Parma’s last three games has gone over 2.5 goals (the 4-1 loss at Torino), with the other two finishing 0-0 and 1-1. Cremonese have seen two of their last three go over 2.5, but their own attacking output remains modest, and both sides’ averages – 0.8 vs 0.4 goals scored, along with sub‑1 xG for Parma (0.96) and Cremonese (0.788) – point towards a tight, low-scoring contest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.82 total, which fits what both teams have produced recently. Parma’s last three matches have yielded corner counts of 7-2, 1-7 and 6-3, showing that games involving them can swing between low and high totals depending on who takes the initiative. Cremonese’s recent corner numbers – 4-6 vs Fiorentina, 4-4 at Lecce and 6-7 vs Milan – suggest an open, flank-focused style that tends to generate and concede plenty of set pieces. Put together, this supports a predicted corners total close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 26.32 for the match is consistent with the volume both sides have seen lately. Parma’s last three have produced combined shot counts of 21 (at Torino), 20 (at Fiorentina) and 29 (vs Cagliari), while Cremonese’s have ended at 26, 19 and 35 total attempts. Given their recent xG – Parma at 0.96 for and 1.832 against, Cremonese at 0.788 for and 2.416 against – the shots prediction suggests we’ll see a decent number of attempts, but not necessarily many clear chances.

Final Prediction

Parma’s edge lies above all in their defensive stability compared to Cremonese’s leaky back line, plus home advantage in a game that matters hugely for both mid‑table security and the relegation fight. Cremonese are allowing too many chances and not creating enough quality of their own, which is why the balance tilts towards a narrow Parma win. The key factor to watch will be how often Parma can turn their territorial pressure into genuine chances against a fragile Cremonese defence.

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