Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Napoli Prediction - 12 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Parma

Home Team
23%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
56%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 37%
Under 2.5: 63%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 8.8
Expected Shots: 22.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Parma D L L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)

Napoli W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 0.97
xGA (avg) 1.37
Clean Sheets 1

Napoli

xG (avg) 1.37
xGA (avg) 0.87
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are clear favourites here, with a 56.0% probability of taking all three points away to Parma, who have just a 23.0% chance of an upset and sit 13th in Serie A, while Napoli are chasing Inter from 2nd place. The model points to a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 63.0% implied probability. In the wider context of the table, Napoli are pushing for the title and at least consolidating a Champions League spot, while Parma are still looking over their shoulder at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Parma come into this with worrying form: just one point from their last three matches, with a draw at Lazio (1-1) bookended by defeats to Cremonese (0-2) and Torino (1-4). The pattern is clear – they struggle to turn possession and set-piece volume into goals, as shown by winning the corner count in two of those three games but still losing twice. Their attack has been blunt over a longer stretch too: only 0.8 goals scored on average in their last five games, backed up by just 0.966 expected goals per match. Defensively, they are conceding 1.6 goals on average with 1.37 xG against, suggesting opponents are finding decent chances. Napoli, by contrast, arrive on a three‑match winning run, all narrow but controlled: 1-0 against Milan, 1-0 away to Cagliari, and 2-1 at home to Lecce. They are grinding out results rather than blowing teams away, but the underlying numbers are solid: 1.4 goals scored on average in their last five, from 1.372 xG, and only 0.87 xG conceded per game, with two clean sheets in that span. That defensive platform, combined with Parma’s modest attacking output, is a big part of why the model tilts so strongly towards an away win and a low total of goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is not favoured here; instead, the model goes for under 2.5 with a 63.0% likelihood. Two of Parma’s last three matches stayed under 2.5 goals (1-1 vs Lazio, 0-2 vs Cremonese), with only the 1-4 loss at Torino going over. For Napoli, two of their last three also went under (1-0 vs Milan, 1-0 vs Cagliari) and just the 2-1 win over Lecce crept over the line. With Parma averaging 0.8 scored and 1.6 conceded, and Napoli’s xG profile (1.372 for, 0.87 against) pointing to efficiency rather than chaos, under 2.5 looks well supported.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Napoli
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match sits at 8.8, suggesting a moderate rather than frenetic game in wide areas. Parma’s recent corner numbers are a bit erratic – 2, 3 and 7 taken in their last three – but they often end up ahead in the corner count even when they lose on the scoreboard, reflecting a team that can reach the final third without consistently creating clear chances. Napoli, with 4, 7 and 7 corners in their last three games, look more like a side that steadily applies pressure. That balance underpins the corners prediction of around nine total, with Napoli’s more controlled attacking style likely to generate a steady stream of set pieces without turning the match into a corner-fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction is for 22.41 total efforts, hinting at a match where Napoli’s superior quality should tell without an avalanche of attempts. Parma’s recent shot tallies – 7, 8 and 6 – underline their difficulties carving out volume, while they conceded 7, 7 and 15 in those same games, showing how easily they can be pushed back. Napoli, on the other hand, have produced 10, 17 and 12 shots in their last three outings, numbers that line up neatly with their 1.372 xG per match and back up the expected shots figure in the low‑20s.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s edge comes from a blend of form, league position and stronger underlying numbers, particularly in defence, where they are conceding far fewer quality chances than Parma. With the visitors more efficient in both boxes and Parma struggling to turn territory into goals, the smart pick is an away win in a controlled, low‑scoring encounter. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma’s set‑piece and crossing volume can finally translate into real chances against one of the league’s more solid back lines.

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