Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Pisa Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Parma

Home Team
64%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 24.8
Expected Spread: +0.6

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Parma W D D L L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 4)

Pisa L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 0.90
xGA (avg) 1.42
Clean Sheets 1

Pisa

xG (avg) 0.68
xGA (avg) 1.66
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Parma are clear favourites at home with a 64.0% chance of victory, compared to just 17.0% for Pisa and an 18.0% probability of a draw. The model leans toward a tight, low-scoring contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 42.0% and even suggests a “no goal” outcome (both teams not scoring). In the table, Parma sit 14th on 39 points, while Pisa are bottom in 20th on 18 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Parma come into this with some quiet momentum: unbeaten in three, with a gritty 1-0 away win at Udinese followed by back-to-back 1-1 draws against Napoli and Lazio. They’re not blowing teams away, but they’re competitive and organised, keeping games tight and rarely opening up. Over their last five games they’ve scored an average of 1.0 goal and conceded 1.8, with expected goals at 0.904 for and 1.418 against, underlining a side that creates just enough while living a bit dangerously at the back. Pisa, by contrast, look like a team in freefall. Three straight defeats – 1-2 at home to Genoa, 0-3 at Roma and 0-1 at home to Torino – tell the story of a side that can’t turn possession or shots into end product. They’ve averaged 0.0 goals scored and 2.6 conceded across their last five, with only 0.676 xG for per match against 1.66 xG conceded. The performances suggest effort but little cutting edge and a defence that’s too easy to open up, which is why Parma’s superiority – backed by the 0.55 expected spread – looks decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 prediction here, with under favoured against a 42.0% probability of the game going over 2.5. All three of Parma’s recent matches have finished with two goals or fewer (1-0, 1-1, 1-1), and Pisa have also stayed under 2.5 in two of their last three (0-3, 0-1, 1-2). With Parma averaging just 1.0 goal scored and Pisa 0.0 over their last five, and xG numbers for both teams under 1.0 per game, everything points toward another low-scoring affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.89, which fits the recent patterns of these sides. Parma have seen corner counts of 5-10, 3-7 and 2-7, regularly conceding more than they take as they absorb pressure. Pisa’s last three have finished 5-5, 3-1 and 1-2 in corners, indicating moderate attacking intent but not relentless wing play. This corners prediction suggests a game where Parma’s control and Pisa’s reactive approach combine for around 9–10 corners, rather than a frantic end-to-end shoot-out.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.82, roughly in line with what both teams have been involved in recently. Parma’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 26, 23 and 14, while Pisa’s produced 25, 17 and 20. That supports a shots prediction of around 25 attempts overall, with Parma likely edging the more dangerous efforts given their slightly stronger xG profile and Pisa’s defensive frailty.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Parma wins by X goals. Negative = Pisa wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Parma vs Pisa with expected spread of +0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Parma vs Pisa
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction sits at +0.55 in Parma’s favour, implying a narrow but deserved home win. Parma’s recent goal differences (1-0, 1-1, 1-1) show they keep things close, while Pisa have lost their last three by one or three goals (1-2, 0-3, 0-1). Combined with Parma’s higher win probability and Pisa’s average of 2.6 goals conceded in their last five, the expected spread aligns with a controlled Parma victory by a single goal.

Final Prediction

Parma’s better form, stronger defensive structure and Pisa’s alarming lack of goals give the hosts a clear edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can finally convert their shots into real chances; if not, Parma’s solidity and efficiency should be enough to bank three vital points in their push away from the drop zone.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel