Serie A 2025-2026: Parma vs Roma Prediction - 10 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Parma

Home Team
28%
VS

Roma

Away Team
49%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.9
Expected Shots: 23.9
Expected Spread: -0.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 35 26 4 5 82 31 51 82
2 Napoli 35 21 7 7 52 33 19 70
3 Milan 35 19 10 6 48 29 19 67
4 Juventus 35 18 11 6 58 30 28 65
5 Roma 35 20 4 11 52 29 23 64
6 Como 35 17 11 7 59 28 31 62
7 Atalanta 35 14 13 8 47 32 15 55
8 Lazio 35 13 12 10 39 34 5 51
9 Bologna 35 14 7 14 42 41 1 49
10 Sassuolo 35 14 7 14 43 44 -1 49
11 Udinese 35 13 8 14 43 46 -3 47
12 Parma 35 10 12 13 25 42 -17 42
13 Torino 35 11 8 16 39 58 -19 41
14 Genoa 35 10 10 15 40 48 -8 40
15 Cagliari 35 9 10 16 36 49 -13 37
16 Fiorentina 35 8 13 14 38 49 -11 37
17 Lecce 35 8 8 19 24 47 -23 32
18 Cremonese 35 6 10 19 27 53 -26 28
19 Verona 35 3 11 21 24 57 -33 20
20 Pisa 35 2 12 21 25 63 -38 18

Recent Trends

Parma L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)

Roma W W D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 5)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Parma

xG (avg) 1.05
xGA (avg) 1.03
Clean Sheets 2

Roma

xG (avg) 1.15
xGA (avg) 1.66
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are favoured to take all three points in Parma, with a 49.0% win probability against just 28.0% for the hosts and 23.0% for the draw. The model points to a low‑scoring away success, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (42.0% for over, so the edge is on under) in a clash between fifth‑placed Roma (64 points) and 12th‑placed Parma (42 points).

Match Analysis

Parma come into this on a quietly solid run: two wins from their last three, both by 1-0 against Pisa and Udinese, either side of a 2-0 defeat away to leaders Inter. They’ve tightened up at the back, keeping two clean sheets in those three games and conceding just three goals overall. The advanced metrics paint a picture of balance: in their last five, Parma are averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG for at 1.046 and xG against at 1.026 – almost exactly even, underlining a side that keeps games tight rather than wide open. Roma’s recent form has been more explosive in terms of results, if not always in sustained domination. A 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina and a 2-0 win away at Bologna were followed by a 1-1 draw with Atalanta, giving them seven points from nine and boosting their Champions League push. Interestingly, the underlying numbers are more modest: over the last five matches Roma average 1.6 goals scored but 2.2 conceded, with xG for at 1.146 and xG against at 1.656. That suggests a team whose defence can be got at, even if the raw results in the last three (two clean sheets) say otherwise.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is backed by both the odds and recent patterns on the pitch. All three of Parma’s last matches have finished under 2.5 goals (0-2, 1-0, 1-0), consistent with their averages of 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded and xG figures hovering just above 1.0 at each end. Roma have been more mixed – 4-0, 2-0 and 1-1, so one game over and two under 2.5 – but their xG profile (1.146 for, 1.656 against) and the matchup against a cautious Parma side still lean this towards a controlled, low‑scoring affair.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Parma
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits around an expected total of 9.95, which fits with both teams’ recent numbers. Parma’s last three have produced 11, 11 and 15 corners overall, with the Gialloblù both winning and conceding a fair share as they soak up pressure and then break. Roma’s recent games have seen 9, 14 and 13 corners, reflecting a side that attacks with width but also allows opponents territory. This should translate into around 10 predicted corners, with Roma’s territorial advantage nudging the count up without turning the game into a corner fest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Parma
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.9, which matches the recent rhythm of both sides. Parma’s last three outings produced combined shot counts of 16, 27 and 26, showing that even in low‑scoring games, chances do appear at both ends. Roma’s matches have been similar, with 18, 17 and 27 total shots, in line with their xG profile of creating just over one good chance per game but allowing opponents efforts too. A shots prediction around 24 expected shots feels consistent with a game where Roma probe and Parma look to be efficient on the counter.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Parma wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Parma vs Roma with expected spread of -0.6
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Parma vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.63 (home minus away), meaning the expected spread favours Roma by a little over half a goal. Recent scorelines back that up: Parma are +0 (2 scored, 2 conceded in the last three), while Roma are +5 (7 scored, 2 conceded), driven largely by that 4-0 against Fiorentina. With Roma’s higher win probability and superior league position, plus Parma’s limited attacking output, the model sees the away side edging a close contest rather than running away with it.

Final Prediction

Roma have the edge thanks to their stronger recent results, higher league standing and slightly superior attacking metrics, even if the underlying numbers suggest this will be more of a grind than a spectacle. Parma’s disciplined defence and knack for keeping games under control make them awkward hosts, but if Roma can impose their rhythm and convert their territorial pressure into chances, their extra quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma’s compact shape can blunt Roma’s attack long enough to frustrate a side chasing Champions League football.

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