Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Bologna Prediction - 2 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Pisa

Home Team
8%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
83%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 8.9
Expected Shots: 23.7

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Pisa L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 6)

Bologna W W L L L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.14
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.90
# Clean Sheets: 1

Bologna

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.06
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.64
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna are strong favourites here, with an 83.0% chance of taking all three points away to a Pisa side rooted in 19th place and fighting relegation, while Bologna sit 8th and pushing towards the European spots. The model leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 53.0% probability that both teams get on the scoresheet. Overall, everything points to an away win in a controlled, low‑scoring game.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this still trapped in a miserable run: just one league win all season, and only one point from their last three matches. They were competitive against Milan in a 1-2 home defeat and limited Fiorentina to a narrow 1-0 loss, while a 0-0 draw at fellow struggler Verona at least brought a clean sheet. The numbers show why they are in trouble: over the last five games they’ve scored only 0.6 goals on average and conceded 2.2, even though their expected goals for (1.14) and against (1.904) suggest they are creating a bit more than they finish and still giving up decent chances at the other end. Bologna arrive in Tuscany looking far more assured, with two wins from their last three – 1-0 at home to Udinese and 2-1 away to Torino – offset only by a slightly harsh 0-1 defeat to Parma in a match where they produced 16 shots. Their recent output of 1.8 goals scored on average in the last five matches underlines a more reliable attack, although conceding 2.0 per game and an xG against of 1.64 shows they still allow opportunities. Even so, compared with Pisa’s blunt edge, Bologna’s balance between creating (1.064 xG for) and finishing looks decisive.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours under 2.5 with a 48.0% probability, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Pisa’s last three matches were under 2.5 goals (1-2 vs Milan being the only over), while Bologna have also seen two of their last three finish under – 1-0 vs Udinese and 0-1 vs Parma, with only the 2-1 win at Torino going over. With Pisa averaging 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, and Bologna at 1.8 scored and 2.0 conceded, plus moderate xG figures for both, a cagey, low‑scoring contest fits the under 2.5 and over 2.5 prediction debate firmly on the “under” side.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 8.94 total corners, suggesting a game that is not overly frantic in wide areas. Pisa’s last three have produced 7, 4 and 12 total corners respectively, reflecting matches where they’ve often been on the back foot but occasionally forced pressure, especially against Verona. Bologna’s recent totals – 11 vs Udinese, 6 vs Torino and 9 vs Parma – hint at a side that does attack but not relentlessly from the wings every week. With Bologna likely controlling territory but not needing to chase the game, the predicted corners figure just under nine looks in line with their measured approach.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 23.71 suggests a match with a reasonable but not explosive attacking volume. Pisa’s last three outings brought 7, 7 and 11 shots of their own, while allowing 15, 7 and 4, usually ending up second-best but not overwhelmed. Bologna, by contrast, have fired 11, 14 and 16 shots in their last three, consistently outshooting opponents. That pattern ties neatly to their xG profile and supports a shots prediction where Bologna generate the bulk of the expected shots, with Pisa relying on isolated chances.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s superior league position, sharper attack and more consistent recent form give them a clear edge over a Pisa side that struggles both to score and to turn half‑chances into goals. If Bologna manage the tempo and convert their territorial dominance into enough quality looks at goal, their overwhelming win probability should translate into three points. The key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can turn their decent xG into real end product early; if they don’t, Bologna’s control should grow as the game wears on.

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