Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Cagliari Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Pisa

Home Team
25%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
56%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 22.8

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Pisa L L L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)

Cagliari L D D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

xG (avg) 1.16
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 1

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.06
xGA (avg) 1.82
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Cagliari are favoured to take all three points, with a 56.0% probability of an away win against bottom‑placed Pisa, who are given just a 25.0% chance at home. The model leans towards a tight contest with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 43.0%, suggesting a low‑scoring game despite the pressure on both sides. In the table, Cagliari sit 14th on 30 points, while Pisa are rock bottom in 20th with only 15 points and staring at relegation.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this one on a brutal run: three straight defeats without scoring, against Juventus (0-4), Bologna (0-1) and Fiorentina (0-1). The pattern is clear – they are staying vaguely competitive in terms of shots against mid-table sides (6-8 vs Bologna, 7-15 vs Fiorentina) but completely collapsed against top opposition in Turin. Their advanced numbers underline the same issue: just 0.6 goals scored on average in their last five, but a more respectable 1.16 expected goals, suggesting they are creating some chances but finishing poorly. Conceding 2.0 goals per game from 1.82 expected also points to a side that is not defending the box well enough. Cagliari’s form is steadier, if unspectacular: two draws and a narrow home defeat in their last three. They held Parma 1-1 away and Lazio 0-0 at home, and were edged 1-2 by high‑flying Como. The shot numbers show a team that can live in games: they’ve matched or at least stayed close to opponents (8-8, 11-18, 11-10), and their five‑game averages of 1.0 goals scored and 1.06 expected goals suggest a consistent attacking output. Defensively they concede 1.8 goals per game from 1.822 expected, slightly worse than mid‑table level but not disastrous, which should be enough against the league’s weakest attack.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 43.0% probability, and recent trends back that under 2.5 goals prediction. Two of Pisa’s last three matches finished under 2.5 (0-1 vs Bologna, 0-1 vs Fiorentina), with only the 0-4 at Juventus going over, while Cagliari have seen two of their last three end under as well (0-0 vs Lazio, 1-1 vs Parma, plus the 1-2 loss to Como going over). With Pisa averaging 0.6 scored and 2.0 conceded, and Cagliari at 1.0 for and 1.8 against, combined with xG figures around 1.1 for each side, everything points towards a cagey, low‑scoring clash.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.15, roughly in line with what both teams have produced recently. Pisa’s last three have seen 8, 11 and 7 corners respectively, while Cagliari’s have produced 5, 9 and 9, showing a tendency to hover around that 8–10 range. That supports a moderate corners prediction: Cagliari’s willingness to keep shooting and Pisa’s need to attack at home should generate a steady flow of set‑pieces, but neither side looks like producing the relentless wide pressure associated with very high predicted corners totals.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 22.84, which fits well with the recent evidence. Pisa have taken 7, 6 and 7 shots in their last three, while allowing 25, 8 and 15; Cagliari have attempted 8, 11 and 11 while conceding 8, 18 and 10 – usually pushing games into the low‑ to mid‑20s overall. This shots prediction also lines up with the xG data: both teams are creating just over 1.0 expected goals per match, implying a reasonable number of attempts but not a barrage.

Final Prediction

Cagliari’s edge comes from their greater balance and reliability at both ends, combined with Pisa’s chronic goal‑scoring problems and last‑place position. With survival still not guaranteed for the visitors and Pisa desperate to claw back ground, the key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can finally turn their 1.16 xG average into an actual goal – if not, Cagliari’s more clinical approach should be enough to decide it.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel