Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Genoa Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Pisa

Home Team
37%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
37%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 24.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Pisa L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 4)

Genoa W L L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 0

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.07
xGA (avg) 1.72
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Genoa are marginally favoured to edge this one away at bottom‑placed Pisa, with both home and away win probabilities set at 37.0% and the model leaning slightly towards an away success rather than a draw (26.0%). Sitting 13th on 36 points, Genoa face a Pisa side rock bottom in 20th with just 18 points and staring at relegation. The game is projected to be tight, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 47.0% chance of going over.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this fixture in dreadful form, losing their last three games without scoring: 0-3 at Roma, 0-1 at home to Torino and a heavy 0-5 defeat away at Como. Across those matches they were out-shot 9-8, 7-13 and 7-14, and outgunned on corners as well, underlining a team struggling to get out of its own half and defend its box. Over the last five games they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG data (1.14 for, 1.70 against) confirming they are consistently second best and have not managed a single clean sheet in that run. Genoa’s recent results are mixed, but performances suggest more solidity than Pisa. They beat Sassuolo 2-1 at home, either side of 0-2 defeats to Juventus and Udinese where they actually produced decent numbers: 12-16 and 18-6 in shots, plus strong corner counts of 5-5 and 7-1. Over the last five, Genoa average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, with xG of 1.07 for and 1.72 against, plus one clean sheet. They are not ruthless in attack, but they create a steady stream of chances and look more competitive than their league position alone suggests.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction only at 47.0%, reflecting expectations of a low-scoring contest. All three of Pisa’s recent games went over 2.5 goals (0-3, 0-1, 0-5), but that has been driven entirely by their defensive collapses rather than any attacking threat. Genoa’s last three produced totals of 3, 2 and 2 goals, so only one of their matches went over; combined with both sides’ five-game averages (Pisa at 1.0 scored, Genoa at 0.8) and modest xG figures, an under 2.5 outcome fits the pattern if Pisa can limit the damage.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.08, pointing towards a fairly standard corners prediction just above nine. Pisa’s last three corner counts (3-1, 1-2, 1-7) show a team that rarely forces set pieces in the attacking third. Genoa, by contrast, have put up 5-3, 5-5 and 7-1, suggesting a more proactive, front‑foot approach that should drive most of the predicted corners, especially down the flanks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots prediction stands at 24.42 total attempts, consistent with a match where Genoa do most of the attacking. Pisa’s shot numbers (9, 7, 7) highlight their struggles to generate chances, while Genoa have produced 14, 12 and 18 efforts in their last three. Those attacking volumes align with Genoa’s xG of 1.072 per game and support the idea that the bulk of the expected shots will fall to the visitors.

Final Prediction

Genoa have the edge thanks to greater stability, higher shot output and a far better recent competitive profile than a Pisa side rooted to the bottom and coming off three straight heavy defeats. The key factor to watch will be whether Pisa can withstand Genoa’s pressure from wide areas; if the visitors dominate territory and corners again, their probability of taking all three points rises sharply.

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