Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Milan Prediction - 13 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Pisa

Home Team
8%
VS

Milan

Away Team
82%
Draw: 9%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 24 19 1 4 57 19 38 58
2 Milan 23 14 8 1 38 17 21 50
3 Napoli 24 15 4 5 36 23 13 49
4 Juventus 24 13 7 4 41 20 21 46
5 Roma 24 15 1 8 29 14 15 46
6 Como 23 11 8 4 37 16 21 41
7 Atalanta 24 10 9 5 32 21 11 39
8 Lazio 24 8 9 7 26 23 3 33
9 Udinese 24 9 5 10 27 36 -9 32
10 Bologna 24 8 6 10 32 31 1 30
11 Sassuolo 24 8 5 11 27 34 -7 29
12 Cagliari 24 7 7 10 28 33 -5 28
13 Torino 24 7 6 11 24 42 -18 27
14 Parma 24 6 8 10 16 30 -14 26
15 Genoa 24 5 8 11 29 37 -8 23
16 Cremonese 24 5 8 11 21 33 -12 23
17 Lecce 24 5 6 13 15 31 -16 21
18 Fiorentina 24 3 9 12 27 38 -11 18
19 Pisa 24 1 12 11 19 40 -21 15
20 Verona 24 2 9 13 18 41 -23 15

Recent Trends

Pisa D L L D D

  • Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 6)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)

Milan W D W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.27
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.77
# Clean Sheets: 1

Milan

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.65
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.43
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are clear favourites here, with an 82.0% probability of taking all three points away to Pisa, who sit 19th, while Milan are firmly in the title and Champions League mix in 2nd place. The model also leans towards a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Milan’s superiority. A draw is given just a 9.0% chance, and Pisa’s chances of an upset at home stand at only 8.0%.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this under heavy pressure, stuck in the relegation zone with only 1 win from 24 games and a goal difference of -21 (19 scored, 40 conceded). Their last three outings underline the struggle: a creditable 0-0 away at fellow strugglers Verona, but a 1-3 home defeat to Sassuolo and a heavy 2-6 loss at Inter. They’ve averaged just 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded in their last five matches, suggesting a side that finds it hard both to create and to keep the back door shut. Milan, by contrast, are in control of their season. Sitting 2nd with only 1 defeat in 23 league games (14 wins, 8 draws), they’ve recently beaten Bologna 3-0 away and Lecce 1-0 at home, plus a 1-1 draw at Roma. Their recent numbers are solid: 1.8 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded per game over the last five, backed up by an average xG of 1.654 for and 1.428 against. Pisa’s xG profile (1.266 for, 1.772 against) shows they do fashion some chances but tend to concede better ones, which is a dangerous mix against a disciplined Milan side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 with a 48.0% chance in what looks like a controlled away win rather than a goalfest. From a totals perspective, 2 out of Pisa’s last 3 league matches went over 2.5 goals (4 and 8 total goals), but their latest was a 0-0, and they average only 0.4 goals scored recently. Milan, meanwhile, have had 1 over and 2 under 2.5 games in their last three (3, 2 and 1 total goals), and their xG figures suggest steady but not explosive attacking output, supporting an under 2.5 prediction despite the visitors’ clear edge.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.76, suggesting a game with steady but not frantic attacking. Pisa’s last three outings saw them take 11, 15 and 8 shots, while conceding 4, 21 and 34 – clear evidence they can be pinned back for long spells. Milan, on the other hand, have attempted 10, 5 and 20 shots in their recent fixtures and generally match their decent xG numbers, so this shots prediction fits a pattern of Milan creating the bulk of chances while Pisa rely on sporadic counters.

Final Prediction

Milan’s superior league position, form, and defensive record give them a clear edge over a Pisa side fighting for survival and struggling at both ends of the pitch. The key factor to watch will be how long Pisa can resist Milan’s pressure; if the visitors score first, the game is likely to fall into the controlled, low-scoring pattern the numbers anticipate.

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