Serie A 2025-2026: Pisa vs Torino Prediction - 5 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Pisa

Home Team
35%
VS

Torino

Away Team
40%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 24.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Pisa L W L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)

Torino L W L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Pisa

xG (avg) 1.41
xGA (avg) 1.70
Clean Sheets 0

Torino

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 2.05
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are slight favourites here, with a 40.0% chance of victory against Pisa’s 35.0%, and the draw at 25.0%, a reflection of 14th versus 20th in the table. The model leans towards the away win and an under 2.5 goals outcome (probability 53.0% for under, with 47.0% for over 2.5). With Torino still looking over their shoulder and Pisa rooted to the bottom on 18 points, the stakes are obvious.

Match Analysis

Pisa come into this desperate. They’ve lost heavily away to Como (0-5) and Juventus (0-4), either side of a vital 3-1 home win over Cagliari. That run underlines how fragile they are defensively on the road, but also that at home they can still raise the tempo and score goals. Over the last five games they’ve averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, with xG numbers (1.406 for, 1.704 against) suggesting they’re usually second best but not completely outclassed. Torino’s recent form has been chaotic rather than solid. They beat Parma 4-1 at home, but that is sandwiched between a 3-2 defeat at Milan and a 2-1 loss at Napoli. Across their last five, they’re scoring 1.0 and conceding a worrying 3.2 per game, with expected goals against at 2.048 showing that defensive problems are real rather than unlucky. One clean sheet in the last five hints that, even against the bottom club, Torino won’t necessarily control the game from back to front.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is slightly less likely than the under, with under 2.5 goals favoured at 53.0%. Pisa’s last three matches have all gone over 2.5 (5, 4 and 4 total goals), but their five-game averages of 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded, plus xG of 1.406 for and 1.704 against, point more to mid-range scorelines rather than shoot-outs every week. Torino have also seen two of their last three over 2.5 (5, 5 and 3 goals), yet their xG of 0.986 for and 2.048 against lines up with the under 2.5 call: chances conceded, but not an endless stream of clear openings.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches
Torino
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.33 total, which fits a game where both sides attack in spells but are not relentless. Pisa have seen corner counts of 1-7, 1-5 and 4-4 in their last three, usually allowing opponents more territory. Torino’s recent corner numbers – 6-4 at Milan, 2-7 against Parma, 2-11 at Napoli – show they can be pinned back by stronger sides, but here they should see more of the ball. A total around the predicted corners figure looks plausible for a match where Torino try to force the issue and Pisa look to break.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches
Torino
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 24.16, consistent with a balanced contest rather than an onslaught. Pisa’s last three outings produced 7, 10 and 7 attempts, while allowing 14, 14 and 25, which underlines their tendency to absorb pressure. Torino, meanwhile, have taken 19, 15 and 7 shots in those same three games, suggesting their attacking volume fluctuates with game state and opponent. The shots prediction matches the xG profiles: enough efforts for a competitive match, but not necessarily a barrage.

Final Prediction

Torino’s slight edge comes from their higher league position, marginally better recent results and greater individual quality in attack, even if their defensive numbers are shaky. Pisa’s home fight cannot be dismissed, but their overall record of 2 wins from 30 and a -31 goal difference is hard to ignore. The key factor to watch will be how Torino manage their back line: if they keep errors down, their attacking weight should be just enough to tilt this in their favour.

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