Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Atalanta Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Roma

Home Team
38%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
37%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 23.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Roma W L W L L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)

Atalanta L W W D D

  • Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 1.93
xGA (avg) 0.92
Clean Sheets 2

Atalanta

xG (avg) 2.01
xGA (avg) 2.34
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are given a slight edge at the Olimpico with a 38.0% probability of winning, just ahead of Atalanta’s 37.0%, with the draw at 25.0%. The model points to a home win in a tight contest between sixth-placed Roma (57 points) and seventh-placed Atalanta (53 points), both chasing the European spots. The goal line leans towards an under 2.5 prediction, with only a 44.0% chance of the game going over 2.5 goals.

Match Analysis

Roma come in with two wins from their last three league games: a routine 3-0 home victory over bottom‑side Pisa and a controlled 1-0 home win against Lecce, either side of a heavy 5-2 defeat away to leaders Inter. That Inter loss aside, Roma have looked solid at the back and efficient in both boxes. Their recent five-game numbers back that up: they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, with expected goals at 1.93 for and 0.924 against, plus two clean sheets in that spell. Atalanta’s recent form has been similarly steady, even if not spectacular. They edged Verona 1-0 at home and won 3-0 away at Lecce, then dominated Juventus territorially (22 shots and 13 corners) but still lost 1-0. Over their last five games, Atalanta are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, with 2.01 xG for but a worrying 2.342 xG against, suggesting they have allowed more chances than the raw goals-against figure implies. Roma’s more balanced underlying numbers, especially defensively, help explain the slight tilt towards the Giallorossi.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 56.0% implied probability, despite a 55.0% chance of both teams scoring. Two of Roma’s last three have gone under 2.5 (3-0 vs Pisa, 1-0 vs Lecce, 2-5 vs Inter being the only over), while two of Atalanta’s last three have also been under (1-0 vs Juventus, 3-0 vs Lecce, 1-0 vs Verona). With Roma conceding just 0.6 per game over five matches and Atalanta matching that, plus both sides’ xG suggesting controlled but not explosive attacks, an under 2.5 outcome is a reasonable call for this over 2.5 prediction discussion.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.45 total corners, hinting at a moderately open game without being end-to-end. Roma’s last three have produced mixed corner counts: 4-7 at Inter, 1-3 vs Pisa, and 10-2 against Lecce, showing they can rack up corners when they pin teams back. Atalanta, traditionally aggressive in wide areas, have seen 13-2 vs Juventus, 5-2 at Lecce and 2-4 vs Verona, underlining their ability to generate set-piece pressure; together, their playing styles support an expectation close to the predicted corners figure.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match sit at 23.76, suggesting a game with a decent volume of attempts but not a shoot-out. Roma’s last three outings saw 9, 8 and 14 shots respectively, while allowing 17, 9 and 8, a profile of a side capable of both conceding and creating chances depending on the opponent. Atalanta’s numbers are even more shot-heavy – 22, 16 and 11 attempts in their last three – and link well with their higher xG figure; combined, these trends justify a shots prediction in line with the model’s expected shots total.

Final Prediction

Roma’s slight edge comes from their more stable defensive metrics and home advantage, even if the gap between the sides in the table and in probabilities is narrow. Atalanta’s capacity to generate shots and corners means they will pose a constant threat, but Roma’s efficiency at both ends could be decisive. The key factor to watch will be whether Atalanta’s chance creation finally matches their xG, or if Roma’s more clinical recent form continues to tell.

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