Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Cremonese Prediction - 22 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Roma

Home Team
95%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
2%
Draw: 3%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Shots: 25.1

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Roma D W L D W

  • Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)

Cremonese D L L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.16
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.64
# Clean Sheets: 2

Cremonese

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.87
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.07
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are clear favourites here, with a 95.0% probability of a home win against a Cremonese side given just 2.0% and a 3.0% chance of a draw. Roma sit 4th in Serie A on 47 points and are pushing for the Champions League spots, while Cremonese are 16th on 24 points and still hovering just above the relegation battle. The model also leans towards an over 2.5 goals outcome with a 52.0% probability.

Match Analysis

Roma come into this clash with mixed results in their last three: a 2-2 draw away at Napoli, a solid 2-0 home win over Cagliari, and a narrow 0-1 loss at Udinese. Performance-wise, though, they’ve been strong – averaging 1.8 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded over their last five games, backed up by 2.164 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.64 xG conceded. Two clean sheets in that span underline how tight they’ve become at the back while still creating plenty going forward. Cremonese’s form is more worrying: a 0-0 home draw with Genoa, followed by defeats to Atalanta (1-2 away) and Inter (0-2 at home). They are averaging just 0.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded in their last five matches, with xG numbers (0.866 for, 2.074 against) that point to a team struggling both to create and to contain. Their league position – 16th with a -12 goal difference – reflects those issues, and coming to face a top-four Roma side at home tilts the balance heavily in the Giallorossi’s favour.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 52.0%. Two of Roma’s last three games (2-2 vs Napoli, 2-0 vs Cagliari, 0-1 vs Udinese) produced exactly two or four goals, so one of three went over 2.5. Cremonese have seen all three of their recent matches finish under 2.5 (0-0, 1-2, 0-2), but Roma’s averages of 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded, alongside their strong xG for, suggest they can push this towards a higher-scoring contest despite Cremonese’s modest attack.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 25.15 total attempts, which fits the recent patterns. Roma’s last three outings saw shot tallies of 9-11, 15-3 and 10-8, showing a team capable of both limiting opponents and generating chances, especially at home. Cremonese’s matches (19-19, 12-29, 9-15) indicate they are often under siege against the league’s top teams, aligning with a shots prediction where Roma’s superior xG and attacking volume should drive a high number of efforts on goal.

Final Prediction

Roma’s edge comes from their top-four level solidity, superior xG profile, and the contrast between their recent 1.8 goals per game and Cremonese’s 0.2. With strong home performances and Cremonese’s defensive vulnerability against big clubs, the home win looks highly likely. A key factor to watch will be how early Roma can turn their pressure into shots and corners, as an early goal could open the floodgates.

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