Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Juventus Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Roma

Home Team
38%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
38%
Draw: 24%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Shots: 24.9

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Roma W D W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 1)

Juventus L L D W W

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 3 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.35
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.57
# Clean Sheets: 2

Juventus

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.82
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Roma v Juventus is rated almost perfectly balanced: the model gives Roma a 38.0% chance of winning, identical to Juventus’ 38.0%, with a 24.0% chance of a draw. The predicted result edges towards an away win for Juventus, in a meeting between 4th-placed Roma (50 points) and 5th-placed Juventus (46 points) with Champions League qualification directly at stake. Despite both sides’ recent scoring form, the under 2.5 goals prediction is favoured, with just a 44.0% probability of the match going over 2.5.

Match Analysis

Roma arrive in better immediate form. They have taken seven points from their last three games: a 3-0 home win over Cremonese, a 2-2 draw away at Napoli, and a solid 2-0 home victory against Cagliari. Those results show a side that is controlling home matches – dominant corners against Cremonese (9-1) and Cagliari (7-1) and very few shots conceded (2 and 3 respectively) underline Roma’s grip at the Olimpico and a defence that has shipped only 16 league goals all season. Juventus, by contrast, are wobbling. They lost 0-2 at home to Como, were edged 2-3 away at leaders Inter, and then drew 2-2 at home with Lazio – just two points from their last three. The performances haven’t been entirely poor going forward – 2.2 goals scored on average across their last five games, backed by 1.976 expected goals – but they have been looser at the back than usual, conceding 1.0 per game in that period and keeping just one clean sheet. Roma’s advanced numbers are slightly stronger defensively: 0.4 goals conceded on average in the last five, from only 0.568 xG against, suggesting a tighter structure that may tilt the balance in a tight contest.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 outcome, despite an over 2.5 prediction probability of only 44.0%, so low scoring is marginally favoured. In terms of recent totals, Roma’s last three games have seen two matches finish under 2.5 goals (2-0 v Cagliari, 3-0 v Cremonese both hit exactly 3 and 2 goals; only the 2-2 at Napoli went clearly over). Juventus have been more open: two of their last three have gone over (3-2 at Inter, 2-2 v Lazio) with just the 0-2 loss to Como under. However, Roma’s blend of 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, alongside both teams’ xG figures pointing to measured rather than chaotic attacking, supports a cautious under 2.5 view in what could be a tense, positional battle.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 24.93, pointing towards a contest with a decent but not excessive volume of attempts. Roma have recently fired 23 shots against Cremonese and 15 against Cagliari, while limiting those opponents to 2 and 3 efforts, and even at Napoli they managed 9 efforts in a more even game. Juventus’ numbers underline their attacking intent: 34 shots against Lazio, 11 v Como and 11 away to Inter, though they also allowed 21 efforts at San Siro. When combined with both teams’ xG output – Roma at 2.348 and Juventus at 1.976 on average in their last five – that supports a shots prediction just under 25, with neither side likely to sit back for long spells.

Final Prediction

Juventus are given the slightest edge in the prediction, but this looks like a razor-thin contest between direct rivals, with Roma’s stronger recent form and defensive solidity offset by Juve’s consistent goal threat. The key factor to watch will be how often Roma can pin Juventus back in their own third; if the home side reproduce their recent territorial dominance in Rome, the away win call will be under serious pressure.

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