Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Lazio Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Roma

Home Team
66%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
17%
Draw: 18%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 49%
No Goal: 51%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 23.5
Expected Spread: +0.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Roma W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)

Lazio L W D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 1.88
xGA (avg) 0.90
Clean Sheets 3

Lazio

xG (avg) 1.73
xGA (avg) 0.78
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are favoured to win the Derby della Capitale, with a 66.0% probability of a home victory against just 17.0% for Lazio, and an 18.0% chance of a draw. The model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 53.0%, despite the attacking talent on show. In the table, Roma are pushing for the top four in 5th place on 67 points, while Lazio sit 9th on 51 points.

Match Analysis

Roma come into this derby flying: three straight wins against Parma (3-2), Fiorentina (4-0) and Bologna (2-0), with nine goals scored and only two conceded. The performances have been convincing both home and away, mixing control (only four shots allowed vs Fiorentina) with cutting edge, and they’ve kept two clean sheets in those three matches. Over the last five games, Roma are averaging 2.4 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, backed up by strong underlying numbers: 1.884 expected goals (xG) created and only 0.904 xG allowed per match, and three clean sheets in five. Lazio’s recent form is more erratic: a 3-0 home loss to leaders Inter, a 2-1 win away at struggling Cremonese, and a chaotic 3-3 draw with Udinese. That run sums up their season: competitive, but vulnerable, with six goals scored and seven conceded in the last three outings. Interestingly, their advanced metrics look better than the raw results: 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average in the last five, with 1.728 xG for and just 0.776 xG against, plus one clean sheet. Those numbers suggest a side that often controls games but doesn’t always turn that control into points, which is dangerous against a clinical Roma.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards an under 2.5 prediction, with under 2.5 goals slightly favoured at 53.0% over a 47.0% chance of going over. Two of Roma’s last three games have gone over 2.5 (3-2 vs Parma, 4-0 vs Fiorentina) with one under (2-0 vs Bologna), while all three of Lazio’s most recent matches went over 2.5 (3-0, 2-1, 3-3). However, both teams’ last-five averages – Roma conceding only 0.8 per game, Lazio also at 0.8, and xG-against figures below 1.0 for each – support the view that this derby could be more cagey than the recent scorelines suggest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Lazio
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this derby is 9.31, pointing to a moderate corners prediction rather than a siege of the penalty areas. Roma’s last three games produced corner counts of 6-3, 4-5 and 7-7, while Lazio’s saw 5-1, 3-3 and 4-5, all sitting around that 8–12 range. Both sides tend to build attacks methodically rather than spraying in constant crosses, which aligns with the predicted corners total staying just under double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.49, suggesting a lively but not wild contest in terms of efforts on goal. Roma’s recent shot numbers (15, 14, 7 taken; 11, 4, 10 faced) and Lazio’s (9, 8, 13 taken; 14, 13, 16 faced) both hover around that mid-20s combined mark. This shots prediction also matches the xG profiles: both sides are efficient at generating decent chances without turning games into pure shootouts, which supports the idea of roughly 20–25 expected shots overall.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Roma wins by X goals. Negative = Lazio wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Roma vs Lazio with expected spread of +0.8
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Roma vs Lazio
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction shows an expected spread of +0.85 in Roma’s favour, meaning the home side are projected to win by just under a goal. Across their last three matches, Roma’s goal difference is +5 (9 scored, 4 conceded), while Lazio sit at -1 (6 scored, 7 conceded), underlining the Giallorossi’s superior form at both ends. That +0.85 expected spread lines up neatly with the 66.0% home-win probability and Roma’s stronger balance between attack and defence.

Final Prediction

Roma’s recent sharpness in both boxes, plus their superior league position and underlying stats, gives them the edge going into this derby. Lazio’s xG numbers hint they can make this uncomfortable, but their defensive lapses remain a concern. The key factor to watch will be whether Lazio’s back line can withstand Roma’s efficient attack over 90 minutes in a match that is likely to be decided by fine margins.

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