Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Lecce Prediction - 22 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Roma

Home Team
76%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
11%
Draw: 13%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 46%
No Goal: 54%
Expected Corners: 9.7
Expected Shots: 23.8

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 29 22 2 5 65 23 42 68
2 Milan 29 17 9 3 44 21 23 60
3 Napoli 29 18 5 6 45 30 15 59
4 Como 29 15 9 5 48 22 26 54
5 Juventus 29 15 8 6 51 28 23 53
6 Roma 29 16 3 10 39 23 16 51
7 Atalanta 29 12 11 6 40 27 13 47
8 Bologna 29 12 6 11 38 34 4 42
9 Lazio 29 10 10 9 29 28 1 40
10 Sassuolo 29 11 5 13 35 39 -4 38
11 Udinese 29 10 6 13 33 42 -9 36
12 Parma 29 8 10 11 21 36 -15 34
13 Genoa 29 8 9 12 36 40 -4 33
14 Torino 29 9 6 14 32 50 -18 33
15 Cagliari 29 7 9 13 31 41 -10 30
16 Fiorentina 29 6 10 13 34 43 -9 28
17 Lecce 29 7 6 16 21 39 -18 27
18 Cremonese 29 5 9 15 23 44 -21 24
19 Pisa 29 2 12 15 23 49 -26 18
20 Verona 29 3 9 17 22 51 -29 18

Recent Trends

Roma L L D W D

  • Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 2)

Lecce L W L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

Average Expected Goals (xG): 2.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 0.84
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lecce

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.81
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.25
# Clean Sheets: 1

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are clear favourites at the Olimpico, with a 76.0% probability of victory against a Lecce side given only an 11.0% chance, and the draw at 13.0%. Sitting 6th on 51 points and chasing the Champions League spots, Roma are expected to have too much for 17th‑placed Lecce, who are hovering just above the relegation line. The model leans towards a tight, low‑scoring home win, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% implied probability.

Match Analysis

Roma come into this with worrying results but strong underlying numbers. They’ve taken just one point from their last three (2-3 vs Juventus, 1-2 at Genoa, 1-2 at Como), conceding late in tight games and looking vulnerable away from home. At the Olimpico, though, they still create plenty: 11 shots against Juve and three goals show their attacking threat when they get territory. Over the last five matches they average 2.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, backed up by 2.442 expected goals for and just 0.838 against – figures that suggest recent defeats are more about small margins than structural collapse. Lecce’s form is more in line with their league position. They’ve lost two of their last three – 1-3 at Como and 1-2 at Napoli – with a narrow 2-1 home win over fellow struggler Cremonese in between. The pattern is clear: they concede chances and struggle to sustain pressure. Across their last five games they have managed only 0.8 goals scored per match, with 1.4 conceded, and their xG numbers (0.812 for, 2.248 against) underline a side that creates very little and lives under constant defensive stress. Away to a top‑six team, that imbalance is likely to be exposed.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 outcome, with the over 2.5 prediction given just a 46.0% chance. Interestingly, 2 out of 3 of Roma’s recent matches went over 2.5 goals (3-3 vs Juventus, 1-2 vs Genoa, 1-2 vs Como), while all 3 of Lecce’s also cleared the line (1-2, 2-1, 1-3). Even so, Roma’s recent defensive averages (0.8 conceded, 0.838 xG against) clash with Lecce’s blunt attack (0.8 goals, 0.812 xG for), pointing to a scenario where Roma may not need a big score to win.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.69, suggesting a match hovering around the 9–10 corners mark. Roma’s last three have produced 1, 6 and 4 corners for them (conceding 7, 3 and 1), while Lecce’s have yielded 7, 4 and 1 (conceding 7, 4 and 5). Given Roma’s tendency to dominate territory at home and Lecce’s need to absorb pressure, this corners prediction fits a game where the hosts rack up most of the wide attacks, with the visitors relying on sporadic breaks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total stands at 23.78, pointing to a mid‑tempo contest rather than a shooting gallery. Roma’s last three have seen them take 11, 8 and just 3 shots, but their five‑game xG average of 2.442 suggests that when they do shoot, the chances are usually good. Lecce’s run – 12, 9 and 5 shots – matches their modest 0.811 xG per game, reflecting low‑quality opportunities. The shots prediction therefore aligns with a match where Roma generate the bulk of the expected shots and the clearer openings.

Final Prediction

Roma’s superiority in league position, attacking output and xG at both ends gives them a clear edge over a Lecce side that struggles to create and concede too much. If the hosts bring their usual home intensity, their quality in the final third should eventually tell, even in a potentially low‑scoring affair. A key factor to watch will be Lecce’s ability – or inability – to escape Roma’s pressure and turn rare counter‑attacks into meaningful chances.

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