Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Milan Prediction
Roma
Home Team
44%
VS
Milan
Away Team
31%
Draw: 25%
Over 2.5:
46%
Under 2.5:
54%
Goal:
53%
No Goal:
47%
Current Standings
| Pos | Team | Pl | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 44 | 17 | 27 | 49 |
| 2 | Milan | 21 | 13 | 7 | 1 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Napoli | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 43 |
| 4 | Roma | 21 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 42 |
| 5 | Juventus | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 39 |
| 6 | Como | 21 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 37 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 32 |
| 8 | Bologna | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 30 |
| 9 | Lazio | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 28 |
| 10 | Udinese | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 33 | -11 | 26 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 23 |
| 12 | Cremonese | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 23 |
| 13 | Parma | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 23 |
| 14 | Torino | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 23 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 22 |
| 16 | Genoa | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 20 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 23 | 32 | -9 | 17 |
| 18 | Lecce | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 17 |
| 19 | Pisa | 21 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 14 |
| 20 | Verona | 21 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 14 |
Recent Trends
Roma
- Last Match: vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 2 - 0)
- 4th Last Match: vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 1)
Milan
- Last Match: vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
- 2nd Last Match: vs Como (Goals: 3 - 1)
- 3rd Last Match: vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 4th Last Match: vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 1)
- 5th Last Match: vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 0)
Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)
Roma
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.77
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
0.85
# Clean Sheets:
3
Milan
Average Expected Goals (xG):
1.46
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA):
1.46
# Clean Sheets:
2
Key Prediction Insights
The upcoming clash between Roma and Milan is anticipated to be a tightly contested match, with Roma having a 44.0% probability of securing a victory on home soil, compared to Milan's 31.0% chance of an away win. The likelihood of a draw stands at 25.0%. Playing at home, Roma, currently positioned 4th in Serie A, is expected to maintain their edge against 2nd-placed Milan. The game is predicted to be low-scoring, with a 46.0% probability of under 2.5 goals.
Match Analysis
Both teams enter this matchup in solid form. Roma have been on a winning streak, securing victories in their last three matches without conceding a single goal. They've recently triumphed over Torino and Lecce away, and Sassuolo at home, each with a 2-0 scoreline. This defensive solidity is reflected in their average of 0.4 goals conceded per game over the last five matches, along with three clean sheets. Offensively, Roma averages 1.6 goals per game, supported by an expected goals figure of 1.77.
Milan, meanwhile, have also displayed a string of positive results, with two wins and a draw in their last three fixtures. They managed a narrow 1-0 victory against Lecce and a convincing 3-1 win against Como, with a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina rounding out their recent performances. Milan's attack is slightly more potent, averaging 1.8 goals per game, although their defense is marginally less secure, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per match. Their expected goals scored and conceded are nearly balanced, indicating a well-rounded team performance.
Final Prediction
Roma's recent defensive resilience gives them a slight advantage in this matchup, particularly playing at home where they have been quite formidable. Milan's attack will need to breach a well-organized Roma defense that has proven difficult to break down. One key factor to watch is whether Roma can continue their streak of clean sheets, which could be pivotal in deciding the outcome of this game.