Serie A 2025-2026: Roma vs Pisa Prediction - 10 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Roma

Home Team
78%
VS

Pisa

Away Team
10%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 52%
Under 2.5: 48%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Roma L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 5)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 3 - 3)

Pisa L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Roma

xG (avg) 2.07
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 1

Pisa

xG (avg) 0.55
xGA (avg) 2.62
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are clear favourites here, with a 78.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Pisa, who have just a 10.0% chance of an upset. With Roma sitting 6th on 54 points and chasing the European places, and Pisa 20th on 18 points and staring at relegation, the gap in quality and form is stark. The model also leans towards an open game, with an over 2.5 prediction at 52.0% and a likely Roma-dominated scoreline.

Match Analysis

Roma come into this after a mixed run: a heavy 5-2 defeat at Inter, a narrow but professional 1-0 home win over Lecce, and a 2-1 loss away to high-flying Como. Those results show some inconsistency, but the underlying numbers are strong. Across their last five matches, Roma average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded, with expected goals at 2.068 for and 0.828 against. That profile points to a side generally in control of games, even if the Inter collapse exposed defensive fragility when pressed at the highest level. Pisa’s situation is far more fragile. They’ve lost two of their last three – 1-0 at home to Torino and a bruising 5-0 away to Como – with only a 3-1 home win over Cagliari offering any encouragement. The advanced metrics underline their problems: just 0.4 goals scored per game over the last five, with 3.2 conceded, and xG figures of 0.554 for and 2.618 against. Pisa aren’t creating enough and are regularly allowing opponents to rack up chances, a combination that is brutally punished in Serie A, especially away to a side with Roma’s attacking tools.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
Pisa
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 52.0%, and the recent scorelines back that up. Two of Roma’s last three league games went over 2.5 goals (the 5-2 at Inter and the 2-1 loss at Como), with only the 1-0 against Lecce staying under. Pisa have seen one of their last three go over 2.5 – the 3-1 win over Cagliari – while the other two finished 1-0 and 5-0, both results consistent with them conceding plenty of chances. With Roma averaging 2.0 scored and Pisa leaking 3.2 per match, plus xG strongly in Roma’s favour, another high‑scoring home outing is more likely than an under 2.5 scenario.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Roma
Corners in last 5 matches
Pisa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.37 total corners, in line with recent data for both teams. Roma’s last three produced 14, 12 and 8 total corners respectively, with the Lecce game especially showing how a proactive home performance (10-2 in corners) can drive numbers up. Pisa’s matches have been a little more modest on that front, with totals of 3, 8 and 6, reflecting a side often pushed back and struggling to sustain attacks. Given Roma’s tendency to push high at home and Pisa’s reactive approach, the predicted corners figure around nine feels realistic for a game likely played mostly in Pisa’s half.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Roma
Shots in last 5 matches
Pisa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total sits at 25.2, which fits well with how these two have been trending. Roma’s last three have seen them involved in matches with 26, 22 and 25 total shots; even in defeat at Como, they allowed 22 attempts, underlining that their games are rarely quiet. Pisa’s recent outings featured 20, 21 and 24 shots, with their opponents generally out-shooting them. Given Roma’s attacking xG of 2.068 per game and Pisa’s defensive issues, an aggressive Roma display driving the shots prediction into the mid‑20s looks very much on the cards.

Final Prediction

Roma have the edge in almost every department: league position, form, goals, and underlying numbers all point towards a commanding home win. Pisa’s low scoring rate and porous defence make an away upset highly unlikely. The key factor to watch will be how early Roma can turn their territorial dominance into goals; if they score first, this could quickly become a one‑sided contest.

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