Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Atalanta Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Sassuolo

Home Team
12%
VS

Atalanta

Away Team
77%
Draw: 12%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Shots: 25.6

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Sassuolo W W L W W

  • Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)

Atalanta W W W D W

  • Last Match: W vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.98
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.66
# Clean Sheets: 2

Atalanta

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.50
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 2.25
# Clean Sheets: 3

Key Prediction Insights

Atalanta are strong favourites here, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points away to Sassuolo, who are 9th in Serie A, while La Dea sit just above them in 7th and chasing the European spots. The model leans towards a tight encounter in terms of goals, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% despite both sides’ attacking reputations. Both teams are in the crowded mid-to-upper table, but the gap in form and defensive solidity currently tilts the balance clearly towards the visitors.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this with a mixed run in their last three: convincing wins over Verona (3-0) and away at Udinese (2-1), followed by a heavy 0-5 home defeat to Inter. That sequence underlines their volatility: they can dominate fellow mid-table or lower sides, but their defensive fragility gets badly exposed against top opposition. Over the last five games, they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded, with xG for at 0.98 and xG against at 1.662, suggesting they’re not consistently creating high-quality chances and tend to allow more than they generate. Atalanta, by contrast, arrive on a three-game winning streak: 2-1 vs Napoli, 2-0 away at Lazio, and 2-1 against Cremonese. Those are three controlled performances, two of them against sides in the top half of the table, showing their ability to manage different types of games. Their last five matches show 1.2 goals scored and a miserly 0.2 conceded on average, with three clean sheets in that span. Interestingly, their xG conceded is 2.248 – higher than the goals they actually allow – which points to some excellent last-ditch defending and goalkeeping, but it also hints they can be opened up if Sassuolo are clinical.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Goals in last 5 matches
The model goes for under 2.5 with a 54.0% probability, despite a 56.0% chance that both teams score. Sassuolo’s last three league games have all gone over 2.5 goals (3-0, 2-1, 0-5), but their underlying numbers – 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, with xG of 0.98 for and 1.662 against – don’t quite match the wild scorelines. Atalanta’s recent matches have twice ended 2-1 and once 2-0, so only one out of three comfortably cleared the over 2.5 prediction, and their strong defensive record (0.2 goals conceded on average) supports the idea of a tighter scoreline here.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Atalanta
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.62, which matches what we’ve seen from both sides lately. Sassuolo’s last three matches have seen combined shot totals of 20, 18 and a lopsided 30 against Inter, underlining how they can be pinned back by stronger teams. Atalanta’s last three featured 20, 30 and a massive 41 total shots, illustrating a high-tempo side that both creates and concedes efforts. That shots prediction also dovetails with Atalanta’s xG profile: they usually generate enough volume (1.496 xG for on average) to wear opponents down over 90 minutes.

Final Prediction

Atalanta’s edge comes from their balance: three straight wins, a far tighter defence, and superior recent form against strong opposition all point towards an away victory. Sassuolo’s inconsistency and tendency to concede chances make them vulnerable to Atalanta’s sustained pressure. The key factor to watch will be how long Sassuolo can resist Atalanta’s attacking waves; if the visitors score first, their defensive numbers suggest they’re well equipped to see the job through.

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