Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Bologna Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sassuolo

Home Team
12%
VS

Bologna

Away Team
77%
Draw: 11%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 56%
No Goal: 44%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.8

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Sassuolo L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 5)

Bologna L W W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.14
xGA (avg) 2.18
Clean Sheets 1

Bologna

xG (avg) 1.08
xGA (avg) 0.93
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Bologna travel to Reggio Emilia as clear favourites, with a 77.0% probability of taking all three points against a Sassuolo side given just a 12.0% chance of victory (draw at 11.0%). It’s a direct battle between neighbours in the table – Bologna sit 8th on 39 points, Sassuolo 9th on 38 – but the numbers point firmly towards the away side. The models also lean towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% (46.0% for over).

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this on the back of improved results, with two wins and one defeat from their last three outings. They beat Atalanta 2-1 and Verona 3-0 at home before a 2-1 loss away to Lazio, with all three matches finishing with exactly three goals. Despite the recent wins, the underlying picture is more fragile: over the last five games they average 1.2 goals scored but 1.8 conceded, and their opponents have consistently generated more threat – Sassuolo’s expected goals against sits high at 2.176 per match, with only one clean sheet in that run. Bologna’s form has been steadier and more controlled. They’ve taken two wins and one defeat in their last three: narrow 1-0 victories over Pisa (away) and Udinese (home), either side of a 2-1 home loss to Verona. Those scorelines underline a team comfortable in tight matches. Over the last five games they’re scoring 1.8 goals per match and conceding 1.4, while their xG numbers – 1.082 for, just 0.934 against – show a side that usually creates enough and, crucially, limits opponents. With Bologna’s defensive metrics stronger than Sassuolo’s at both ends, it explains why the away win is so strongly favoured.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Bologna
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards an under 2.5 outcome, with a 54.0% edge against 46.0% for over 2.5 goals. Interestingly, all of Sassuolo’s last three games finished with exactly three goals, so 3/3 went over 2.5, while Bologna’s last three produced two matches at 1-0 and one at 2-1 – just one of those three went over 2.5. Sassuolo’s 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded per game, together with 1.14 xG for and 2.176 xG against, suggest openness, but Bologna’s tighter profile (1.8 scored, 1.4 conceded, and xGA under 1.0) points towards a more controlled tempo, underpinning the under 2.5 prediction.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Bologna
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.15 total, so just around the typical Serie A average. Sassuolo’s last three have seen 7, 12 and 11 corners respectively, while Bologna’s have featured 8, 11 and 11, showing both sides are regularly involved in matches nudging around that 9–11 range. With Bologna likely to have more control but not necessarily constant high-tempo pressure, and Sassuolo alternating between spells under siege and quick breaks, the predicted corners tally fits the recent trend of balanced, but not frantic, wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Bologna
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.84, again pointing to a game with a reasonable but not excessive number of efforts on goal. Sassuolo’s last three have produced 20, 33 and 20 total shots, while Bologna’s featured 34, 14 and 21, underlining how match context can swing their volume. Given Bologna’s xG of 1.082 and xGA of 0.934, the shots prediction suggests they’ll generate enough attempts to justify their favourite tag, while Sassuolo may be out-shot but still dangerous in moments.

Final Prediction

Bologna’s superior defensive structure and more efficient attack, backed by stronger xG figures, give them a clear edge despite the narrow one-point gap in the table. Sassuolo’s vulnerability without the ball, highlighted by 2.176 xG conceded on average, could be decisive if Bologna impose their rhythm. A key factor to watch will be whether Sassuolo can withstand Bologna’s sustained pressure or whether the visitors’ control and compactness turn those expected shots into a clinical away win.

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