Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Cagliari Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sassuolo

Home Team
52%
VS

Cagliari

Away Team
25%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.5
Expected Shots: 23.3

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Sassuolo D L L W W

  • Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 3 - 0)

Cagliari L L L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.19
xGA (avg) 1.74
Clean Sheets 1

Cagliari

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 1.96
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Sassuolo are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 52.0% chance of victory against Cagliari’s 25.0% and a 23.0% probability of a draw. The model points to a home win in a tight, low‑scoring contest, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite both sides usually being open at the back. In the table, Sassuolo sit 10th on 39 points, relatively safe in mid‑table, while 15th‑placed Cagliari are on 30 points and still uncomfortably close to the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Neither side comes into this with momentum. Sassuolo are winless in three (two defeats and a draw), but the 1–1 away draw at Juventus shows they can still compete with top opposition, even if they were outshot 18–7. At home, a 0–1 loss to Bologna and a 2–1 defeat at Lazio underline a recent tendency to be narrowly edged rather than outclassed, with the Neroverdi often enjoying decent territorial pressure but lacking cutting edge. Cagliari’s form is outright worrying: three straight losses to Napoli (0–1), Pisa (1–3) and Como (1–2). They have conceded at least twice in two of those three and allowed 17 shots to Napoli and 10 to Pisa, despite seeing plenty of the ball themselves. The advanced metrics back up the picture of a fragile side: Cagliari have conceded on average 2.0 goals and 1.96 xG in their last five, compared to just 0.8 goals scored from 1.008 xG. Sassuolo are hardly watertight either, shipping 1.4 goals and 1.74 xG on average, but they create slightly more (1.2 goals from 1.186 xG) and have at least one clean sheet in their last five, which suggests a marginally better balance.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 44.0% probability of the game going above that mark, so the under 2.5 call is the safer angle despite both teams’ defensive issues. Recent scorelines support a cagey outlook: 2 of Sassuolo’s last 3 league matches have finished under 2.5 (1–1 vs Juventus, 0–1 vs Bologna, then only the 1–2 at Lazio went over), while Cagliari also have 2 of 3 under (0–1 vs Napoli, 1–3 at Pisa, 1–2 vs Como). With Sassuolo averaging 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded and Cagliari at 0.8 for and 2.0 against, plus both sides’ xG numbers hovering only just above 1.0 in attack, the over 2.5 prediction is less convincing than a tight, nervy encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction sits at 9.5 total, which fits the recent data. Sassuolo’s last three games produced 13, 11 and 7 corners respectively, reflecting a team that pushes forward enough to generate set pieces, especially at home where they had 7 corners against Bologna. Cagliari’s matches have been slightly more modest in this department, with totals of 9, 6 and 5 corners, but they still attack the wide areas enough to keep the predicted corners close to double figures.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Cagliari
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.3, suggesting a game with chances but not all‑out chaos. Sassuolo have recently allowed high shot counts (18 for Juventus, 16 for Bologna, 13 for Lazio) while taking 7–9 themselves, so they should contribute steadily to the shots prediction even if they’re not always on the front foot. Cagliari’s last three show a similar pattern—7, 14 and 8 attempts of their own while conceding 17, 10 and 8—tying in with their xG profile of roughly one good chance per game, plus several half‑openings.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s slight edge in attacking output, home advantage and marginally better defensive record explains why they are given a 52.0% chance to win. Cagliari’s run of three straight defeats and heavier xG conceded makes them look more vulnerable, especially away from Sardinia. A key factor to watch will be whether Sassuolo can turn their territorial play and expected shots into early goals, or if Cagliari can drag the game into the tight, low‑scoring battle that an under 2.5 prediction implies.

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