Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Como Prediction - 17 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Sassuolo

Home Team
22%
VS

Como

Away Team
59%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 55%
No Goal: 45%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 23.5

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Sassuolo L W D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)

Como L D W W W

  • Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 3 - 4)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

xG (avg) 1.01
xGA (avg) 1.95
Clean Sheets 0

Como

xG (avg) 1.38
xGA (avg) 0.85
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como are clear favourites here: the away win is given a 59.0% probability, compared with just 22.0% for Sassuolo and 20.0% for the draw. Fifth-placed Como (58 points) are pushing hard for a top‑four Champions League spot, while 11th‑placed Sassuolo (42 points) are marooned in mid-table with little margin for error. The model points to a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite Como’s strong attacking form.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this on a mixed run: a 2-1 home win over Cagliari was sandwiched between a 1-2 defeat at Genoa and a gritty 1-1 draw away to Juventus. The pattern is familiar: they usually find a goal (they’ve scored in all three of those matches) but remain fragile at the back, conceding in every outing and allowing plenty of shots – 18 to Juve, 14 to Genoa. Their recent averages underline that imbalance: 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over the last five, with expected goals against at a hefty 1.95 and no clean sheets in that run. Como arrive with momentum and a much more solid platform. They hammered Pisa 5-0 at home, then shut down Udinese in a 0-0 away draw, before going toe-to-toe with leaders Inter in a wild 3-4 defeat. Across those three matches they’ve taken control of games in different ways: ruthless against weaker opposition, disciplined in Udine, and brave in a shootout with the champions-elect. Their advanced numbers are impressive: 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded on average over the last five, backed by 1.382 xG for and just 0.848 xG against, plus two clean sheets in that spell. The contrast is stark. Sassuolo’s xG profile suggests a side that often under-defends and lives on fine margins, while Como’s looks like that of a team with top‑four credentials, capable of keeping games tight when needed and stepping on the accelerator when chances appear. That combination gives the visitors a clear statistical edge.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 prediction, with under 2.5 goals favoured despite a 48.0% probability of over 2.5 goals. Sassuolo’s last three matches have twice gone over the line (2-1 vs Cagliari, 1-2 at Genoa) and once under (1-1 at Juventus), while Como have seen two high-scoring games (5-0 vs Pisa, 3-4 vs Inter) and one go under (0-0 at Udinese). However, when you look at the averages – Sassuolo scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6, Como at 1.6 for and 0.4 against, with xG for both sides clustered close to 1.0–1.4 – the numbers support a relatively controlled contest rather than an end‑to‑end goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate tally, with expected total corners set at 9.23. Sassuolo’s recent games have been fairly subdued on that front: 3-5 at Genoa, 2-2 against Cagliari, and 4-9 at Juventus, suggesting they can be pushed back by stronger sides. Como’s last three have been similarly modest in volume – 1-1 vs Inter, 2-6 at Udinese, 7-1 vs Pisa – but when they dominate territorially, as against Pisa, the corner count rises sharply. Given Como’s more assertive style and Sassuolo’s tendency to defend deep under pressure, a total just under double figures fits the predicted corners profile.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 23.46 expected shots in total, which aligns with what both teams have produced recently. Sassuolo’s last three show 15, 9 and 7 attempts respectively, but they’ve also allowed 14, 11 and 18, often ceding the shot volume to their opponents. Como, by contrast, fired 24 shots at Inter, 12 at Udinese and 14 at Pisa, while facing 7, 14 and 7 – numbers that match their strong xG of 1.382 per game and point to a side that regularly works the goalkeeper. Put together, those figures make around the mid‑20s in expected shots a realistic benchmark.

Final Prediction

Como’s superior league position, defensive solidity and sharper recent xG numbers give them a clear edge over a Sassuolo side that still leaks too many chances. If the visitors control territory as they have in recent weeks, their quality in both boxes should tell over 90 minutes. The key factor to watch will be whether Sassuolo can withstand Como’s pressure without collapsing defensively – if they can’t, the away side’s Champions League push will take another big step forward.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel