Serie A 2025-2026: Sassuolo vs Verona Prediction - 20 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Sassuolo

Home Team
63%
VS

Verona

Away Team
17%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 44%
Under 2.5: 56%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Shots: 24.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 25 20 1 4 60 21 39 61
2 Milan 25 15 9 1 41 19 22 54
3 Napoli 25 15 5 5 38 25 13 50
4 Roma 25 15 2 8 31 16 15 47
5 Juventus 25 13 7 5 43 23 20 46
6 Como 25 11 9 5 39 19 20 42
7 Atalanta 25 11 9 5 34 21 13 42
8 Bologna 25 9 6 10 34 32 2 33
9 Lazio 25 8 9 8 26 25 1 33
10 Sassuolo 25 9 5 11 29 35 -6 32
11 Udinese 25 9 5 11 28 38 -10 32
12 Parma 25 7 8 10 18 31 -13 29
13 Cagliari 25 7 7 11 28 35 -7 28
14 Torino 25 7 6 12 25 44 -19 27
15 Genoa 25 5 9 11 29 37 -8 24
16 Cremonese 25 5 9 11 21 33 -12 24
17 Lecce 25 6 6 13 17 31 -14 24
18 Fiorentina 25 4 9 12 29 39 -10 21
19 Pisa 25 1 12 12 20 42 -22 15
20 Verona 25 2 9 14 19 43 -24 15

Recent Trends

Sassuolo W L W W L

  • Last Match: W vs Udinese (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 5)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)

Verona L D L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Sassuolo

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.78
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.94
# Clean Sheets: 1

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.67
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.81
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Sassuolo are favoured to take all three points, with a 63.0% probability of a home win against bottom‑placed Verona, who have just 15 points and sit 20th. The over/under model leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 56.0% implied probability (44.0% for over). Sassuolo are 10th on 32 points and can edge further away from the relegation battle with a victory here.

Match Analysis

Sassuolo come into this match with two wins in their last three, beating Udinese 2-1 away and Pisa 3-1 away, either side of a heavy 5-0 home defeat to Inter. Those results show a team capable of punishing weaker opponents but vulnerable against top sides. Across the last five games, however, they have averaged only 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, with xG at 0.778 for and 1.938 against, underlining that their recent scoring bursts are not consistently supported by chance creation. Verona’s form is much more alarming: no wins in their last three, with a 0-4 loss at Cagliari, 0-0 at home to Pisa and a 1-2 defeat at Parma. In both away defeats they conceded multiple goals and were outplayed territorially, especially at Parma where they allowed 27 shots and 12 corners. Over the last five matches they average 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with xG of 0.668 for and 1.81 against, suggesting they create little and are regularly second best.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Sassuolo
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an under 2.5 outcome, with under more likely than over 2.5 prediction despite Sassuolo being the clear favourites. Two of Sassuolo’s last three matches went over 2.5 goals (3-1 vs Pisa, 2-1 vs Udinese), but the Inter game was also high-scoring at 0-5, driven mainly by their defensive frailty rather than sustained attacking power. Verona have seen two of their last three go over (0-4 vs Cagliari, 1-2 vs Parma) with only the 0-0 against Pisa under; their low averages of 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, plus both teams’ xG figures below 1 per game, support the idea of a low-to-moderate scoring match overall.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Sassuolo
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game is 24.02 in total, suggesting a moderate level of goal attempts. Sassuolo’s last three outings produced combined shot counts of 18 (vs Udinese), 30 (vs Inter) and 36 (vs Pisa), reflecting that their matches can open up, particularly against weaker or very strong opposition. Verona’s games have seen 15, 15 and 31 total shots, and combined with their sub‑1.0 xG average, the shots prediction points to Sassuolo generating the clearer chances while Verona struggle to create volume.

Final Prediction

Sassuolo’s home advantage, higher league position and Verona’s poor away form make the hosts deserved favourites, backed by the 63.0% win probability. Verona’s weak attacking numbers and tendency to concede territory should tilt the game in Sassuolo’s favour. A key factor to watch will be whether Verona can limit Sassuolo’s shot volume; if they cannot, the under 2.5 line may be tested despite the model’s cautious goal expectation.

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