Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Inter Prediction - 26 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Torino

Home Team
16%
VS

Inter

Away Team
68%
Draw: 16%
Over 2.5: 55%
Under 2.5: 45%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Corners: 9.3
Expected Shots: 25.3
Expected Spread: -0.9

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Torino D W W L W

  • Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)

Inter W W W D D

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Como (Goals: 4 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 5 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 1.50
xGA (avg) 1.10
Clean Sheets 2

Inter

xG (avg) 1.75
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Inter are clear favourites here, with a 68.0% chance of victory away to Torino, who are given just a 16.0% chance, with the draw also at 16.0%. The model points to Inter extending their lead at the top of Serie A, where they sit 1st on 78 points, against a Torino side in 12th on 40 points. The over 2.5 prediction is also positive, with a 55.0% chance that the game produces at least three goals.

Match Analysis

Torino come in on a quietly solid run: two wins and a draw from their last three. They edged relegation-threatened Verona 2-1 at home and Pisa 1-0 away, either side of a goalless draw at Cremonese. The pattern is clear: they’ve tightened up defensively, conceding just once across those three matches, even if they haven’t created huge volume – 11 shots versus Verona, 13 at Pisa and only 4 at Cremonese. Inter, though, are arriving in Turin like a steamroller. Three straight wins, all high-scoring: 3-0 over Cagliari, a wild 4-3 away at Como, and a 5-2 dismantling of Roma. Their attack is in full flow, averaging 2.4 goals over the last five games from 1.748 xG, and they’ve scored 12 times in the last three alone. Defensively they’re not watertight, conceding three at Como and two against Roma, but their own firepower has easily outweighed that. From an advanced-metrics standpoint, Torino’s recent averages – 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, with xG for at 1.504 and xG against at 1.1 over the last five – show a team performing slightly above underlying numbers. Inter’s profile is similar but at a higher level and with a touch more defensive vulnerability (1.0 goals conceded, 1.36 xG against), which leans towards a game Inter control but don’t completely shut down.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Inter
Goals in last 5 matches
The over 2.5 prediction is favoured at 55.0%, and recent form backs that up. Two of Inter’s last three games have flown over 2.5 goals (4-3 v Como, 5-2 v Roma), while Torino have had one over (2-1 v Verona) and two unders (0-0 v Cremonese, 1-0 v Pisa). With Torino averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, and Inter at 2.4 scored and 1.0 conceded in their last five, plus both sides’ xG figures sitting above 1.5 and 1.7 respectively, the balance of evidence is tilted towards another game with at least three goals rather than an under 2.5 grind.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Inter
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a moderate count, with 9.31 expected total corners in the match. Torino’s last three games have produced 4, 9 and 3 total corners respectively – generally low to mid-range. Inter’s have been a touch higher in volume, with 13 against Cagliari, just 2 at Como, and 11 versus Roma. Given Inter’s front-foot, high-shot approach and Torino’s more selective, counter-based play, the predicted corners total just under double figures feels consistent with a game where Inter push the tempo and rack up most of the flag kicks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Inter
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction sits at 25.34 expected shots overall, matching the way both teams have been playing. Torino’s last three matches have seen them produce 4, 11 and 13 shots while facing 14, 18 and 7 – often being out-shot but efficient. Inter, by contrast, have fired 18, 7 and 17 efforts, while allowing 10, 24 and 9, which underlines their open, end-to-end style. With both sides’ xG levels – 1.504 for Torino and 1.748 for Inter over the last five – the expected shots total suggests Inter generating the bulk of the chances, with Torino looking to strike in fewer but decent situations.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Torino wins by X goals. Negative = Inter wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Torino vs Inter with expected spread of -0.9
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Torino vs Inter
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -0.93 (home minus away), clearly favouring Inter by roughly a one-goal margin on the road. Recent results support that expected spread: Torino are +3 on goals over their last three (3 scored, 1 conceded), but Inter are a huge +7 (12 scored, 5 conceded) over the same period. With Inter’s win probability at 68.0% and their attack operating at a higher level than Torino’s, the expected spread reflects a match in which the league leaders are more likely to pull away, even if Torino’s recent defensive discipline stops it from becoming a rout.

Final Prediction

Inter have the edge thanks to superior attacking output, league position, and recent high-scoring wins, even if Torino’s form and defensive numbers suggest they won’t roll over. The key factor to watch will be whether Torino’s recently improved back line can withstand Inter’s sustained pressure and shot volume, or whether the league leaders’ relentless attack eventually decides the contest.

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