Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Juventus Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Torino

Home Team
15%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
70%
Draw: 15%
Over 2.5: 57%
Under 2.5: 43%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.8
Expected Spread: -1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Torino L W L D D

  • Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Sassuolo (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)

Juventus L W D D W

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Verona (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 2.03
xGA (avg) 1.43
Clean Sheets 1

Juventus

xG (avg) 1.73
xGA (avg) 1.24
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus are clear favourites for the derby, with a 70.0% chance of victory compared to just 15.0% for Torino and 15.0% for the draw, and they arrive as 6th in Serie A against a Torino side sitting 12th. The model points to an away win combined with an over 2.5 prediction on goals (57.0% probability), suggesting a more open game than some past derbies. With Juve still fighting among the European places and Torino well in mid-table, the visitors have the sharper edge in motivation and quality.

Match Analysis

Torino’s last three outings have been inconsistent: a 2-1 home win over Sassuolo sandwiched between away defeats to Cagliari (2-1) and Udinese (2-0). They’ve looked more dangerous going forward of late, reflected in an average of 2.4 goals scored across their last five matches and 2.03 expected goals per game, but that has not translated into stability, with just one clean sheet in that same span. The 61 goals conceded across the season and a -19 goal difference underline why they are stuck in 12th place. Juventus, despite a shock 2-0 home defeat to Fiorentina, have generally controlled matches recently: a 1-0 win at Lecce and a 1-1 draw with Verona were both games they dominated in shots and corners. Over their last five, they average 1.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, with 1.73 xG created and 1.238 xG allowed, along with three clean sheets. The numbers show a side that still defends well and consistently creates chances, even if they have occasionally struggled to turn dominance – like 29 shots against Verona and 26 versus Fiorentina – into goals.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model favours an over 2.5 prediction at 57.0%, expecting at least three goals in the match. Torino have seen two of their last three league games hit at least three goals (2-1 vs Sassuolo, 2-1 vs Cagliari), with only the 2-0 defeat to Udinese going under 2.5. Juventus’ last three have all ended under 2.5 (2-0, 1-0, 1-1), but their recent averages of 1.73 xG for and 1.238 xG against, combined with Torino’s 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, suggest a match where both attacks generate enough to push the total over the line.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total sits at 9.36, pointing to a moderately busy game from set pieces. Torino’s last three have produced 6, 12 and 7 total corners respectively, while Juventus’ games have been corner-heavy: 8 vs Fiorentina, 8 at Lecce and a huge 15 against Verona. Given Juve’s tendency to pin teams back – reflected in double-digit corner counts in two straight home matches – the corners prediction is for the visitors’ attacking pressure to drive the overall total toward that 9–10 range.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 25.84 fits what we’ve seen recently from these two. Torino’s last three matches have produced 23, 31 and 28 total efforts, while Juventus have been relentless: 36 shots against Fiorentina, 23 at Lecce and 36 versus Verona. With Juve’s xG of 1.73 and Torino’s 2.03 over their last five, the shots prediction is that we see plenty of attempts from both sides, with the visitors again likely to post a high tally.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Torino wins by X goals. Negative = Juventus wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Torino vs Juventus with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Torino vs Juventus
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The goal spread prediction is -1.25 (home minus away), meaning Juventus are expected to win by a margin of around one to two goals. Torino’s last three show a combined goal difference of -2 (three scored, five conceded), while Juve are level over that stretch (two for, three against) but have clearly dominated the underlying numbers. Aligning the expected spread with a 70.0% away win probability and Juve’s stronger defensive record, the model anticipates the Bianconeri’s organisation and efficiency telling over 90 minutes.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ superior league position, tighter defence, and stronger xG profile give them the edge over a Torino side that scores freely but remains fragile. If the visitors convert chances at something closer to their underlying numbers, their attacking volume and discipline without the ball should decide the derby. The key factor to watch will be whether Torino’s improving attack can break through early; if not, Juve’s control and patience are likely to prevail.

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