Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Lazio Prediction - 1 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Torino

Home Team
26%
VS

Lazio

Away Team
55%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Shots: 26.0

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Torino L L D W L

  • Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 6)

Lazio D L D W D

  • Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.48
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.50
# Clean Sheets: 1

Lazio

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.71
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.12
# Clean Sheets: 2

Key Prediction Insights

Lazio are favoured to take all three points in Turin, with a 55.0% probability of an away win against just 26.0% for Torino, and the visitors looking to strengthen their current 10th place in Serie A against a Torino side sitting 15th. The model points to a tight encounter, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (46.0% for under) suggesting a cagey affair rather than a shoot-out. A both-teams-to-score “goal” outcome is just tipped (51.0%), hinting that while chances may be limited, neither defence is watertight.

Match Analysis

Torino come into this under pressure after back-to-back defeats followed a draw: 0-3 at Genoa, 1-2 at home to Bologna and a 2-2 away draw at Fiorentina. The pattern is worrying at the back – seven goals conceded in three games – and they were outshot in every match (7-16, 7-14, 12-21). Yet the advanced numbers over the last five outings show Torino’s attack creating more than they finish: 0.8 goals scored per game from an average xG of 1.478, with 1.6 conceded from an xG against of 1.504, suggesting sloppy defending and underperformance in both boxes. Lazio’s recent form has been steadier if not spectacular: a 0-0 at Cagliari, a 0-2 home loss to Atalanta and a 2-2 draw away at Juventus. They’ve shown two sides of themselves – solid and compact in Sardinia, but vulnerable when pushed back by Atalanta and especially by Juve, who rained in 34 shots. Over the last five games, Lazio average just 0.8 goals scored but concede only 0.6, despite allowing 1.124 xG per game. That points to a team leaning on defensive structure and goalkeeping to stay in matches, which fits with an away-day plan built on control rather than risk.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Lazio
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to an under 2.5 outcome, with a 46.0% probability and the over 2.5 prediction not strongly backed by the numbers. Two of Torino’s last three matches have gone over 2.5 goals (3, 3, 4 total goals), but that has owed a lot to their defensive fragility rather than sustained attacking quality. Lazio, by contrast, have seen two of their last three finish under 2.5 (0, 2, 4 total goals), in line with their five-game averages of 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded and a modest 0.708 xG in attack. Both sides’ recent xG profiles point more towards a low-scoring battle than an open contest.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Lazio
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots stands at 26.04, suggesting a game with chances but not relentless end-to-end football. Torino have managed only 7, 7 and 12 efforts in their last three, while allowing 16, 14 and 21, a sign they often end up absorbing pressure. Lazio’s recent sequence – 10, 18 and 9 shots taken, with 11, 12 and 34 faced – also hints at matches where the opposition sees plenty of the ball. The shots prediction aligns with the xG data: neither attack is especially prolific, so we should see a fair number of attempts but not an avalanche, with quality rather than volume likely deciding it.

Final Prediction

Lazio’s edge comes from their greater defensive solidity and slightly higher league standing, combined with Torino’s leaky recent form and inability to control shot counts. If the visitors can keep the game tight and exploit Torino’s lapses at the back, their superior win probability looks justified. A key factor to watch will be how often Torino can turn their decent xG into clear chances against a Lazio side that has recently specialised in grinding games down to their tempo.

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