Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Parma Prediction - 13 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Torino

Home Team
60%
VS

Parma

Away Team
19%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 25.4

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Torino L W L L D

  • Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 2)

Parma D D W W W

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Cagliari (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Verona (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 1.20
xGA (avg) 1.52
Clean Sheets 1

Parma

xG (avg) 0.66
xGA (avg) 2.07
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 60.0% probability of a Granata win against just 19.0% for Parma and 20.0% for the draw. The models point to a tight, low‑scoring game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction despite a 52.0% chance that both sides get on the scoresheet. In the table, Parma arrive better placed in 12th on 34 points, while Torino sit 15th on 30 points and still glancing nervously at the relegation battle.

Match Analysis

Torino’s last three outings have been inconsistent but revealing. A solid 2-0 home win over Lazio was sandwiched between a 1-2 defeat at Napoli and a heavy 0-3 loss away to Genoa. Across those games they’ve shown they can control matches at home but are vulnerable when pushed back, with only 7 shots at Napoli and 7 at Genoa compared to 13 at home to Lazio. Their recent averages – 1.0 goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game over the last five, with 1.198 xG for and 1.518 xG against – suggest a side that creates enough to edge tight contests but still allows opponents decent chances. Parma come in on a sturdier run in terms of results: a 1-0 away win at Milan followed by a 1-1 home draw with Cagliari and a 0-0 away at Fiorentina. That’s just one goal conceded in the last three, but also only two scored, underlining their current defensive focus. The advanced numbers back this up: 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded on average in the last five, with a modest 0.66 xG created but a high 2.072 xG allowed per match. Three clean sheets in that stretch show resilience, but the xG against hints they have been living dangerously and relying on last-ditch defending and poor opposition finishing.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The under 2.5 prediction is supported by a 47.0% probability for over 2.5 goals, meaning the balance tilts slightly towards a low‑scoring match. Two of Torino’s last three games – the 1-2 loss to Napoli and 0-3 defeat to Genoa – went over 2.5, but their 2-0 win against Lazio stayed under. Parma, meanwhile, have been consistently cagey: all of their last three – 0-0 at Fiorentina, 1-1 against Cagliari, 1-0 at Milan – finished under 2.5. With Torino averaging just 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded and Parma at 0.4 scored and 0.8 conceded, plus relatively modest xG figures in attack for both, a tight, low‑margin contest looks more likely than a shootout.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.16 total corners, which fits a game where Torino are on the front foot but not relentlessly so. Torino’s last three have produced 8 corners at Napoli (2-11 against them), 15 at home to Lazio (6-9), and 4 at Genoa (3-1), showing big swings depending on how much they are forced back. Parma’s matches have seen 8 corners at Fiorentina (1-7), 9 against Cagliari (6-3), and 7 at Milan (2-5). Both sides tend to concede more corners than they win when under pressure, so a mid‑range total around the predicted corners figure looks realistic.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.36, in line with two teams that don’t freewheel but still allow a fair amount in their own box. Torino’s last three games saw them take 7, 13 and 7 shots while facing 14, 12 and 16, indicating they often get out‑shot, especially away. Parma managed 8, 18 and 9 attempts, but allowed 12, 11 and a hefty 25, again consistent with a side that absorbs pressure. Given Torino’s slightly better attacking xG (1.198) compared to Parma’s 0.66, the shots prediction suggests Torino will edge the shot count, with Parma relying on fewer but potentially dangerous breaks.

Final Prediction

Torino’s home advantage, slightly stronger attacking metrics, and higher win probability give them the edge in what should be a tight, tactical affair. Parma’s recent clean sheets show they can frustrate, but their high xG conceded hints that this defensive run may not be sustainable. The key factor to watch will be whether Torino can convert their expected territorial advantage into clear chances against a Parma side that has specialised in suffering without breaking.

Get Daily Football Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven football predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel