Serie A 2025-2026: Torino vs Verona Prediction - 11 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Torino

Home Team
54%
VS

Verona

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 47%
Under 2.5: 53%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 25.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 31 23 3 5 71 26 45 72
2 Napoli 31 20 5 6 47 30 17 65
3 Milan 31 18 9 4 47 24 23 63
4 Como 31 16 10 5 53 22 31 58
5 Juventus 31 16 9 6 54 29 25 57
6 Roma 31 17 3 11 42 28 14 54
7 Atalanta 31 14 11 6 44 27 17 53
8 Bologna 31 13 6 12 40 37 3 45
9 Lazio 31 11 11 9 32 29 3 44
10 Sassuolo 31 12 6 13 38 41 -3 42
11 Udinese 31 11 7 13 35 42 -7 40
12 Torino 31 10 6 15 35 53 -18 36
13 Parma 31 8 11 12 22 39 -17 35
14 Genoa 31 8 9 14 36 44 -8 33
15 Fiorentina 31 7 11 13 36 44 -8 32
16 Cagliari 31 7 9 15 32 44 -12 30
17 Cremonese 31 6 9 16 26 46 -20 27
18 Lecce 31 7 6 18 21 43 -22 27
19 Verona 31 3 9 19 22 53 -31 18
20 Pisa 31 2 12 17 23 55 -32 18

Recent Trends

Torino W L W L W

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)

Verona L L L W L

  • Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Torino

xG (avg) 1.35
xGA (avg) 1.17
Clean Sheets 2

Verona

xG (avg) 0.93
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Torino are favoured to take all three points, with a 54.0% probability of a home win against a Verona side given just a 23.0% chance, and a 22.0% likelihood of a draw. The model leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (47.0% for over 2.5, so a slight edge to the low‑scoring side), pointing to a tight game. In the table, Torino sit 12th on 36 points, while Verona are 19th with 18 points and deeply involved in the relegation fight.

Match Analysis

Torino come into this on a solid run of form: two wins from their last three, including a 4-1 home dismantling of Parma and a hard‑fought 1-0 away success at Pisa, only interrupted by a narrow 3-2 defeat at Milan. They’ve been competitive in every outing, generating 13, 19 and 15 shots in those matches, and showing they can grind out results as well as open up when the opportunity arises. Their recent averages back that up: 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game over the last five, with xG at 1.352 for and 1.17 against, plus two clean sheets. Verona, by contrast, arrive in Turin on a three‑match losing streak and, more worryingly, three straight games without scoring: 0-2 v Genoa, 0-1 at Atalanta, 0-1 v Fiorentina. The performances haven’t been completely lifeless – 21 shots and 9 corners against Fiorentina show they can pen teams back – but they lack cutting edge in both boxes. Over the last five, they’ve averaged just 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with xG at 0.93 for and 1.676 against, and no clean sheets, numbers that underline why they’re stuck in 19th.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Torino
Goals in last 5 matches
Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
The model points to under 2.5 goals as the more likely outcome, even with a 47.0% probability assigned to over 2.5. Torino’s last three games have produced mixed totals: two matches over 2.5 goals (2-3 at Milan, 4-1 v Parma) and one under (1-0 at Pisa). Verona’s recent form is far more conservative in terms of scorelines, with all three of their last matches finishing under 2.5. Given Torino’s recent averages of 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded, and Verona’s 0.6 scored and 2.2 conceded, combined with xG numbers that sit around the 2.3–2.6 total-goal range, a cautious under 2.5 call feels justified despite Torino’s occasional high‑scoring outing.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Torino
Corners in last 5 matches
Verona
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to a fairly standard match, with expected total corners at 9.55. Torino’s last three games have seen combined corners of 3 (v Pisa), 10 (v Milan) and 9 (v Parma), suggesting they can be involved in both low and moderate corner counts depending on game state. Verona’s matches have been more consistently corner‑heavy for the opposition and themselves: 6 (v Genoa), 6 (at Atalanta) and an eye‑catching 10 (v Fiorentina), where they alone took 9. Their need to attack from a relegation position, combined with Torino’s willingness to shoot and cross, makes a 9–10 total a reasonable predicted corners benchmark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Torino
Shots in last 5 matches
Verona
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The shots prediction forecasts 25.64 expected shots in total, pointing to a game with a decent amount of goalmouth activity even if the scoreline may stay modest. Torino’s last three have seen them involved in matches with 20, 34 and 21 total shots, reflecting their proactive style and openness, particularly against stronger sides. Verona’s recent games have brought totals of 19, 23 and 26 shots, which fits neatly with the expected shots figure and matches their xG pattern of creating some chances but finishing poorly.

Final Prediction

Torino’s superior form, more balanced goal and xG profile, and home advantage give them a clear edge over a Verona team that has forgotten how to score in recent weeks. Verona’s desperation in the relegation battle may push them forward, but their defensive fragility and lack of cutting edge are major concerns. A key factor to watch will be whether Torino can turn their steady xG and shot volume into an early goal; if they do, Verona’s confidence and survival hopes could take another heavy blow.

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