Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Como Prediction - 6 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Udinese

Home Team
20%
VS

Como

Away Team
61%
Draw: 19%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 8.6
Expected Shots: 22.4

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Udinese W L D W L

  • Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)

Como W W W W W

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 5 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Lecce (Goals: 3 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Juventus (Goals: 2 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 0.80
xGA (avg) 1.57
Clean Sheets 2

Como

xG (avg) 1.64
xGA (avg) 0.98
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Como are clear favourites here: the model gives the visitors a 61.0% chance of victory, compared to just 20.0% for Udinese and 19.0% for the draw. Sitting 4th with 57 points and chasing the Champions League places, Como look a level above an Udinese side in 11th on 39 points. The game leans towards a tight affair, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 49.0% and both teams still rated 50.0% to score.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this with a mixed but gritty run: a 2-0 away win at Genoa, a narrow 0-1 home defeat to Juventus, and a 2-2 draw at Atalanta. They have shown resilience, keeping two clean sheets in their last five games and conceding only 0.8 goals on average in that spell. However, the underlying numbers are less flattering: just 1.0 goal scored per game and only 0.804 expected goals on average suggest a side that struggles to create clear chances and is often playing on fine margins. Como arrive in far better shape and full of confidence after three straight wins. They hammered Pisa 5-0, then outplayed Roma 2-1 with a dominant 22-3 shot count, before edging Cagliari 2-1 away. Over their last five, Como are averaging 2.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded, with 1.644 xG created and 0.976 xG allowed per match – the profile of a balanced, controlled top-four contender. That blend of efficiency in both boxes is a major reason why they’re so strongly favoured despite playing away.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Como
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly to an under 2.5 prediction with a 49.0% chance, reflecting Udinese’s cautious, low-scoring trend. Two of Udinese’s last three matches (2-0 vs Genoa, 0-1 vs Juventus) finished under 2.5 goals, with only the 2-2 at Atalanta going over. Como, by contrast, have seen all of their last three games go over 2.5 (5-0, 2-1, 2-1), but their xG profile – 1.644 for and 0.976 against – suggests controlled rather than wild games. Combined with Udinese’s modest attacking figures (1.0 goals, 0.804 xG for), a tight Como win under 2.5 fits the numbers.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Como
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total stands at 8.62, pointing to a relatively average corners prediction rather than a flurry of set-piece action. Udinese’s last three matches have been erratic in this department: they earned 1, 2 and 3 corners respectively while allowing 7, 6 and 11, often being pushed back and defending deep. Como, meanwhile, have regularly forced corners through sustained pressure – 7 against Pisa, 7 against Roma and 3 at Cagliari. Their more proactive style should tilt the corner count in their favour, but overall totals are still likely to sit around that 8–9 mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Como
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure of 22.45 hints at a match with a reasonable amount of goalmouth action but not an end-to-end shootout. Udinese’s last three outings show them taking 6, 10 and 8 shots while conceding 18, 22 and 22 – another sign they may be spending long spells without the ball. Como’s recent numbers are stronger: 14 shots vs Pisa, 22 vs Roma and 8 at Cagliari, fitting well with their higher attacking output and xG. In this shots prediction, Como should again outshoot their hosts, with their pressure likely to generate the better chances.

Final Prediction

Como’s superior form, stronger attack and much healthier xG profile explain why they are strongly favoured to win away from home. Udinese’s defensive organisation gives them a chance to keep it close, but their limited creativity could be exposed by a top-four contender. The key factor to watch will be whether Udinese can withstand Como’s sustained pressure without conceding early; if they can’t, the visitors’ quality should decide it.

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