Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Cremonese Prediction - 17 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Udinese

Home Team
59%
VS

Cremonese

Away Team
20%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 43%
Under 2.5: 57%
Goal: 48%
No Goal: 52%
Expected Corners: 10.2
Expected Shots: 25.1
Expected Spread: +0.7

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 36 27 4 5 85 31 54 85
2 Napoli 36 21 7 8 54 36 18 70
3 Juventus 36 19 11 6 59 30 29 68
4 Milan 36 19 10 7 50 32 18 67
5 Roma 36 21 4 11 55 31 24 67
6 Como 36 18 11 7 60 28 32 65
7 Atalanta 36 15 13 8 50 34 16 58
8 Bologna 36 15 7 14 45 43 2 52
9 Lazio 36 13 12 11 39 37 2 51
10 Udinese 36 14 8 14 45 46 -1 50
11 Sassuolo 36 14 7 15 44 46 -2 49
12 Torino 36 12 8 16 41 59 -18 44
13 Parma 36 10 12 14 27 45 -18 42
14 Genoa 36 10 11 15 40 48 -8 41
15 Fiorentina 36 8 14 14 38 49 -11 38
16 Cagliari 36 9 10 17 36 51 -15 37
17 Lecce 36 8 8 20 24 48 -24 32
18 Cremonese 36 7 10 19 30 53 -23 31
19 Verona 36 3 11 22 24 58 -34 20
20 Pisa 36 2 12 22 25 66 -41 18

Recent Trends

Udinese W W D L W

  • Last Match: W vs Cagliari (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 0)

Cremonese W L L D L

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Torino (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.47
xGA (avg) 1.36
Clean Sheets 3

Cremonese

xG (avg) 0.52
xGA (avg) 1.86
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are favoured to take all three points here, with a 59.0% chance of a home win against a Cremonese side given just a 20.0% chance, and another 20.0% on the draw. The under 2.5 goals prediction is the likeliest scenario (43.0% for over, so a tilt towards a low‑scoring game), which fits the defensive records on show. In the table, Udinese sit 10th on 50 points, while Cremonese are 18th on 31 points and fighting to escape the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Udinese arrive in good form and with momentum. They’re unbeaten in three, with back‑to‑back 2-0 wins over Torino and Cagliari followed by a 3-3 draw at Lazio that showed both their resilience and attacking punch. Across the last five games they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored but an impressively low 0.4 conceded, backed up by three clean sheets; their xG numbers (1.47 created, 1.356 allowed per game) suggest they generally create slightly more than their opponents and are hard to break down. Cremonese, 18th and under serious relegation pressure, have been far more fragile. A 3-0 home win over bottom‑placed Pisa was a vital boost, but it is framed by a 2-1 home defeat to Lazio and a heavy 4-0 loss away to Napoli. Over their last five, they’ve scored just 0.6 per game and conceded 2.0, with low attacking output reflected in an average xG of only 0.518. Defensively, they’re allowing 1.862 expected goals per match, a worrying sign coming into a trip to a confident mid‑table side.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5, despite factoring a 43.0% chance of over 2.5 goals, and that under 2.5 prediction fits more of the recent evidence. Two of Udinese’s last three have stayed under (2-0, 2-0) with only the chaotic 3-3 in Rome going over, while Cremonese have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-0, 1-2, 0-4). Udinese’s balance of 1.0 scored and 0.4 conceded, plus Cremonese’s meagre 0.6 scored and low 0.518 xG, point towards a controlled home win rather than a goal fest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 10.22, a figure that sits neatly around what both sides have produced recently. Udinese’s last three have seen 12, 7 and 9 corners, while Cremonese’s have brought 8, 6 and 12, suggesting our corners prediction of roughly ten is realistic. Udinese’s recent pattern of territorial control, especially at home, and Cremonese’s need to counter and chase the game, support a healthy but not extreme tally of predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Cremonese
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots is 25.13, which matches well with how both teams have been playing. Udinese have posted 9, 19 and 16 attempts in their last three, while facing 22, 9 and 13; Cremonese have taken 10, 13 and 7 shots, conceding 0, 8 and a hefty 25 against Napoli. This shots prediction aligns with the xG profile: Udinese’s stronger attacking metrics and Cremonese’s tendency to allow chances point to the hosts out‑shooting their visitors within that 25‑shot range.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Udinese wins by X goals. Negative = Cremonese wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Udinese vs Cremonese with expected spread of +0.7
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Udinese vs Cremonese
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal spread prediction is Udinese -0.74, meaning the home side are projected to win by roughly three‑quarters of a goal. Recent scorelines back this up: Udinese are +4 on goal difference over their last three (2-0, 2-0, 3-3), while Cremonese are -2 (3-0, 1-2, 0-4). That expected spread ties directly into the 59.0% home‑win probability and the contrast between Udinese’s tight defence and Cremonese’s leaky back line.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s combination of solid defensive numbers, superior xG profile and recent results gives them a clear edge over a struggling Cremonese side. The key factor to watch will be whether Cremonese can generate enough threat against a team that has kept three clean sheets in five; if they can’t, Udinese’s discipline and control should decide the contest.

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