Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Juventus Prediction - 14 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Udinese

Home Team
5%
VS

Juventus

Away Team
89%
Draw: 6%
Over 2.5: 49%
Under 2.5: 51%
Goal: 53%
No Goal: 47%
Expected Corners: 9.1
Expected Shots: 25.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Udinese D W L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Lecce (Goals: 1 - 2)

Juventus W D L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 3 - 3)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 2 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 1.09
xGA (avg) 1.22
Clean Sheets 1

Juventus

xG (avg) 2.09
xGA (avg) 1.16
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Juventus travel to Udine as clear favourites: the model gives the Bianconeri an 89.0% chance of victory, with only a 5.0% probability for Udinese and 6.0% for the draw. Sixth-placed Juve (50 points) are chasing the Champions League spots, while 11th-placed Udinese sit in mid-table on 36 points. The game leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (49.0% chance), suggesting a controlled away win rather than a goal fest.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this on a mixed run: a 2-2 draw at Atalanta, an impressive 3-0 home win over Fiorentina, and a narrow 0-1 loss away to Bologna. That run shows a team capable of raising their game against better sides, but also one that can still be edged out in tight contests. Over their last five matches they’ve scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.0, with xG at 1.092 for and 1.222 against, underlining a slight vulnerability at the back despite generally competitive performances. Juventus, meanwhile, look far more explosive in attack: 4-0 at home to Pisa, a breathless 3-3 draw away to Roma, and a 0-2 home defeat to Como. Across their last five, they’re averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, backed up by strong attacking underlying numbers with 2.09 xG for per game and just 1.158 xG against. That balance of consistent chance creation and relatively solid defensive metrics explains why they are such heavy favourites, even if the odd off-day like the loss to Como still appears.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Juventus
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 49.0% probability, slightly edging out the over 2.5 prediction. Udinese’s last three games have seen two matches go over 2.5 goals (2-2 vs Atalanta, 3-0 vs Fiorentina) and one under (0-1 at Bologna), but their five-game averages of 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded, plus modest xG figures, point to tighter contests overall. Juventus have had two high-scoring games in their last three (4-0 vs Pisa, 3-3 at Roma) and one under (0-2 vs Como), yet their defensive xG profile suggests they can restrict Udinese enough to keep the total just below the 3-goal mark.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Juventus
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match sits at 9.12, indicating a fairly standard Serie A game rather than an end-to-end siege. Udinese’s last three outings produced 10, 7 and 10 corners respectively, while Juventus matches generated 8, 5 and 9, matching the predicted corners band. With Juve likely to control territory and Udinese breaking when they can, the corners prediction reflects two sides who do attack but not with the relentless wing play that usually drives very high corner counts.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Juventus
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 25.17, which fits well with both teams’ recent profiles. Udinese have recorded 8, 10 and 10 shots in their last three while allowing 22, 10 and 11, whereas Juventus have taken 25, 13 and 11 and faced 7, 11 and 11. This shots prediction aligns neatly with Juve’s 2.09 xG average and Udinese’s 1.092 xG, suggesting a match where the visitors generate the majority of the chances but the hosts still threaten sporadically.

Final Prediction

Juventus’ edge comes from their superior attacking numbers, deeper squad quality and stronger league position, all backed by an 89.0% win probability. Udinese’s recent resilience means this may not be a rout, but Juve’s capacity to create chances should tell. A key factor to watch will be how Udinese’s defence copes with sustained pressure from a Juventus side that has been averaging over two goals per game in recent weeks.

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