Serie A 2025-2026: Udinese vs Parma Prediction - 18 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Udinese

Home Team
54%
VS

Parma

Away Team
23%
Draw: 22%
Over 2.5: 39%
Under 2.5: 61%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 24.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Udinese W D W L D

  • Last Match: W vs Milan (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Como (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 2 - 2)

Parma D D L L D

  • Last Match: D vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Lazio (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Udinese

xG (avg) 0.99
xGA (avg) 1.30
Clean Sheets 3

Parma

xG (avg) 0.43
xGA (avg) 1.35
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Udinese are favoured to take all three points at home, with a 54.0% chance of victory against Parma’s 23.0%, and the draw at 22.0%. The model leans towards a low‑scoring home win, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (39.0% for over 2.5) and even suggests “no goal” both teams to score at 55.0%. In the table, Udinese sit 10th on 43 points, seven clear of 14th‑placed Parma on 36, and can tighten their grip on the top half with a result here.

Match Analysis

Udinese come into this on a quietly impressive run: a 3-0 statement win away to Milan, a controlled 0-0 at home to Como, and a professional 2-0 victory at Genoa. Two away wins to nil around a solid home draw underline a team that’s become hard to break down, even if not especially explosive going forward. Across their last five matches they’ve averaged just 1.0 goal scored, but only 0.6 conceded, with three clean sheets – the hallmarks of a side comfortable grinding out results. Parma’s recent form is more fragile: home defeat to relegation-threatened Cremonese (0-2) was followed by battling 1-1 draws against Napoli at home and Lazio away. They’re picking up points but rarely in command of games. Their advanced numbers reflect that: just 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average in the last five, but with a very low 0.428 expected goals for and 1.35 expected goals against. That gap between what they create and what they concede suggests they’re often second best in terms of chances, depending on resilience rather than control.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Udinese
Goals in last 5 matches
Parma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model backs under 2.5 with the over 2.5 prediction at only 39.0%, fitting with both teams’ recent patterns. All three of Udinese’s last outings finished under 2.5 goals (3-0, 0-0, 2-0), while all three of Parma’s also stayed under (1-1, 1-1, 0-2). With Udinese averaging 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded, and Parma at 0.8 for and 1.0 against, backed by modest xG figures on both sides, a tight, cagey affair looks more likely than a goalfest.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Udinese
Corners in last 5 matches
Parma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.43, pointing to a match in the medium range for set‑piece volume. Udinese’s last three have produced 7, 8 and 8 corners respectively, while Parma’s have brought 10, 9 and 4, showing neither side consistently generates huge numbers. Given Udinese’s more conservative, result‑first approach and Parma’s struggle to sustain pressure, the corners prediction around nine or ten fits a game of measured attacking rather than relentless wing play.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Udinese
Shots in last 5 matches
Parma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots figure is 23.97, again suggesting an average Serie A contest rather than a shoot‑out. Udinese’s last three saw combined shot totals of 32, 26 and 24, but they often ceded volume while staying compact; Parma’s games came in at 23, 14 and 15 shots. With Udinese’s xG at 0.992 and Parma’s at just 0.428 over their last five, the shots prediction points to a match where the home side create the better openings, even if overall shot volume remains moderate.

Final Prediction

Udinese’s edge lies in their defensive solidity and recent clean‑sheet habit, backed by home advantage against a Parma side that struggles to generate high‑quality chances. Parma’s low attacking output and unfavourable xG balance make it hard to see them dictating proceedings. The key factor to watch will be whether Parma can disrupt Udinese’s controlled rhythm early on; if not, the game tilts heavily towards a methodical home win.

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