Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Fiorentina Prediction - 4 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Verona

Home Team
33%
VS

Fiorentina

Away Team
41%
Draw: 26%
Over 2.5: 45%
Under 2.5: 55%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.0
Expected Shots: 24.1

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 30 22 3 5 66 24 42 69
2 Milan 30 18 9 3 47 23 24 63
3 Napoli 30 19 5 6 46 30 16 62
4 Como 30 16 9 5 53 22 31 57
5 Juventus 30 15 9 6 52 29 23 54
6 Roma 30 17 3 10 40 23 17 54
7 Atalanta 30 13 11 6 41 27 14 50
8 Lazio 30 11 10 9 31 28 3 43
9 Bologna 30 12 6 12 38 36 2 42
10 Sassuolo 30 11 6 13 36 40 -4 39
11 Udinese 30 11 6 13 35 42 -7 39
12 Parma 30 8 10 12 21 38 -17 34
13 Genoa 30 8 9 13 36 42 -6 33
14 Torino 30 9 6 15 34 53 -19 33
15 Cagliari 30 7 9 14 31 42 -11 30
16 Fiorentina 30 6 11 13 35 44 -9 29
17 Cremonese 30 6 9 15 25 44 -19 27
18 Lecce 30 7 6 17 21 40 -19 27
19 Verona 30 3 9 18 22 52 -30 18
20 Pisa 30 2 12 16 23 54 -31 18

Recent Trends

Verona L L W L L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)

Fiorentina D W D L W

  • Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Cremonese (Goals: 4 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Parma (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Pisa (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.60
xGA (avg) 1.13
Clean Sheets 0

Fiorentina

xG (avg) 1.30
xGA (avg) 1.63
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Fiorentina are slight favourites here, with a 41.0% chance of taking all three points away to Verona, compared to a 33.0% probability for the home side and 26.0% for the draw. The model also leans towards an under 2.5 goals prediction (45.0% for over 2.5, so a marginal edge to the “under”) in what could be a tight, nervy contest. In the table, Fiorentina sit 16th on 29 points, while Verona are 19th on 18 points and fighting to escape the bottom three.

Match Analysis

Verona come into this still mired in relegation trouble and with just one win in their last three games. They beat Bologna 2-1 away, but that is sandwiched between a 0-2 home defeat to Genoa and a 0-1 loss at Atalanta. The pattern is clear: they struggle badly for goals, failing to score in two of those three outings, and even in the win they allowed 19 shots. Their last five games back that up, with only 0.8 goals scored on average and 2.0 conceded, and no clean sheets at all. Fiorentina look in slightly better shape, unbeaten in their last three: a 1-1 draw with Inter, a 4-1 away win at Cremonese and a 0-0 at home to Parma. They’ve found more attacking punch recently, averaging 1.8 goals scored over the last five matches, but they remain open at the back, conceding 1.6 per game with an average xG conceded of 1.626. Their own xG in that period sits at 1.298, notably higher than Verona’s 0.598, underlining why the visitors are favoured: they create more and carry greater threat, even if they don’t fully control games defensively.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Goals in last 5 matches
The model edges towards under 2.5 goals, despite only a 45.0% probability for over 2.5, so the under 2.5 is the safer call. Two of Verona’s last three matches went under 2.5 goals (0-1 vs Atalanta, 0-2 vs Genoa), with just the 2-1 win at Bologna going over. Fiorentina, by contrast, have had two out of three over 2.5 (4-1 at Cremonese, 1-1 vs Inter) and one under (0-0 vs Parma), but Verona’s meagre 0.8 goals scored and 0.598 xG going forward suggest this over 2.5 prediction is less likely to land than a cagey, low-scoring encounter.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 8.99, pointing towards a relatively moderate corners prediction rather than an end-to-end barrage. Verona’s last three games have produced 6, 6 and 8 corners (they earned 4, 4 and 3 themselves), while Fiorentina’s have been slightly higher with 8, 10 and 8 (winning 3, 6 and 7). Fiorentina’s tendency to push on and rack up corners, especially at home, should still generate a decent number, but Verona’s more conservative, low-xG style tempers the overall total towards around nine predicted corners.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Fiorentina
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total shots sits at 24.07, a reasonable figure that fits both sides’ recent patterns and makes for a realistic shots prediction. Verona’s last three matches saw combined shot counts of 23, 19 and 34, while Fiorentina’s produced 28, 26 and 20 efforts. With Fiorentina averaging 1.298 xG and Verona allowing 1.126 xG against, both sides should generate enough attacks to approach that expected shots number without turning the game into a pure shoot-out.

Final Prediction

Fiorentina’s edge in creativity and recent form, allied to Verona’s chronic scoring problems and -30 goal difference, explains why the visitors are tipped as favourites. If Fiorentina can maintain their attacking output while managing the defensive lapses suggested by their 1.626 xG conceded, they should have just enough. The key factor to watch will be whether Verona can turn their limited chances into goals; if not, their survival hopes will take another heavy blow.

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