Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Genoa Prediction - 15 Mar 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Verona

Home Team
39%
VS

Genoa

Away Team
34%
Draw: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
Under 2.5: 54%
Goal: 52%
No Goal: 48%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.0

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 28 22 1 5 64 22 42 67
2 Milan 28 17 9 2 44 20 24 60
3 Napoli 28 17 5 6 43 29 14 56
4 Como 28 14 9 5 46 21 25 51
5 Roma 28 16 3 9 38 21 17 51
6 Juventus 28 14 8 6 50 28 22 50
7 Atalanta 28 12 10 6 39 26 13 46
8 Bologna 28 11 6 11 37 34 3 39
9 Sassuolo 28 11 5 12 35 38 -3 38
10 Lazio 28 9 10 9 28 28 0 37
11 Udinese 28 10 6 12 33 41 -8 36
12 Parma 28 8 10 10 20 32 -12 34
13 Genoa 28 7 9 12 34 40 -6 30
14 Cagliari 28 7 9 12 30 38 -8 30
15 Torino 28 8 6 14 28 49 -21 30
16 Lecce 28 7 6 15 20 37 -17 27
17 Fiorentina 28 5 10 13 30 42 -12 25
18 Cremonese 28 5 9 14 22 40 -18 24
19 Verona 28 3 9 16 22 49 -27 18
20 Pisa 28 1 12 15 20 48 -28 15

Recent Trends

Verona W L L L D

  • Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)

Genoa W L W D L

  • Last Match: W vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Inter (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Cremonese (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 2 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.64
xGA (avg) 1.15
Clean Sheets 1

Genoa

xG (avg) 1.17
xGA (avg) 1.64
Clean Sheets 2

Key Prediction Insights

Verona are marginal favourites at home, with a 39.0% chance of victory against Genoa’s 34.0%, and the model leaning towards a home win despite Verona sitting 19th and Genoa in a safer 13th place in Serie A. The game is expected to be tight on the scoreboard, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 54.0% probability. A draw (27.0%) remains very much in play in what looks like a nervy relegation-tinged clash for Verona.

Match Analysis

Verona arrive from a curious run: a morale-boosting 2-1 away win at Bologna, sandwiched between a 1-2 home loss to Napoli and a heavy 0-3 defeat at Sassuolo. Across those three games they’ve scored three and conceded six, which matches the broader trend of the last five matches, where they average just 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The underlying numbers (0.64 xG for and 1.148 xG against per game over the last five) suggest a side that struggles to create clear chances and often relies on scraps rather than sustained pressure. Genoa’s recent form is more reassuring: impressive home wins over Roma (2-1) and Torino (3-0) frame a respectable 0-2 loss away at leaders Inter. Seven goals scored and three conceded in those three outings show they can punish opposition mistakes, even if their five-game averages (0.6 goals for, 1.2 against) point to a usually low-scoring, cautious approach. Interestingly, Genoa’s xG is much healthier than their actual goal return – 1.17 xG for and 1.638 xG against – suggesting they are creating a decent volume of chances but not always finishing them, while also allowing opponents opportunities.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Genoa
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans to under 2.5 with a 54.0% likelihood, despite the over 2.5 prediction sitting at 46.0%. All of Verona’s last three matches – 2-1, 1-2, 0-3 – have actually gone over 2.5 goals, but those results are slightly at odds with their five-game averages of 0.8 scored and 1.8 conceded, plus the modest xG figures. Genoa’s last three also produced over 2.5 twice (2-1 v Roma, 3-0 v Torino, plus a 0-2 at Inter), yet their longer-term numbers point towards tighter contests, reinforcing the call for under 2.5 in a high-stakes encounter where caution may dominate.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Genoa
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The corners prediction points to around 9.18 total corners, hinting at a moderate, not frantic, attacking tempo. Verona’s last three matches saw combined corners of 8, 7 and 11, while Genoa’s produced 9, 12 and 4, which collectively sit close to that predicted corners line. Both sides have shown they can be forced back – Genoa in particular conceded 10 corners at Inter – so a game of territorial swings rather than relentless wing play supports an average-looking corners tally.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Genoa
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 24.03, a figure that matches what we’ve seen recently from both teams. Verona’s last three games featured 34, 17 and 20 total shots, while Genoa’s produced 19, 20 and 23, all clustering around that low-to-mid 20s mark. Given Genoa’s higher xG than goal return and Verona’s modest 0.64 xG per game, the shots prediction suggests a fair number of attempts but not necessarily many clear-cut openings.

Final Prediction

Verona’s slight edge lies in home advantage and a prediction narrowly on their side, but league position and Genoa’s recent wins over Roma and Torino underline how fragile that edge really is. The key factor to watch will be which side manages the pressure better in the final third – if Genoa’s finishing matches their xG for once, Verona’s survival hopes could take another serious hit.

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