Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Lecce Prediction - 25 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Verona

Home Team
53%
VS

Lecce

Away Team
24%
Draw: 23%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 45%
No Goal: 55%
Expected Corners: 9.2
Expected Shots: 24.0
Expected Spread: +0.5

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 33 25 3 5 78 29 49 78
2 Milan 33 19 9 5 48 27 21 66
3 Napoli 33 20 6 7 48 33 15 66
4 Juventus 33 18 9 6 57 29 28 63
5 Como 33 16 10 7 57 28 29 58
6 Roma 33 18 4 11 46 29 17 58
7 Atalanta 33 14 12 7 45 29 16 54
8 Bologna 33 14 6 13 42 39 3 48
9 Lazio 33 12 11 10 34 30 4 47
10 Sassuolo 33 13 6 14 41 44 -3 45
11 Udinese 33 12 7 14 38 43 -5 43
12 Torino 33 11 7 15 37 54 -17 40
13 Genoa 33 10 9 14 40 46 -6 39
14 Parma 33 9 12 12 24 40 -16 39
15 Fiorentina 33 8 12 13 38 45 -7 36
16 Cagliari 33 8 9 16 33 47 -14 33
17 Cremonese 33 6 10 17 26 47 -21 28
18 Lecce 33 7 7 19 22 46 -24 28
19 Verona 33 3 9 21 23 56 -33 18
20 Pisa 33 2 12 19 24 60 -36 18

Recent Trends

Verona L L L L L

  • Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 2)

Lecce D L L L L

  • Last Match: D vs Fiorentina (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Bologna (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Roma (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 1 - 2)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.47
xGA (avg) 0.83
Clean Sheets 0

Lecce

xG (avg) 0.95
xGA (avg) 1.85
Clean Sheets 0

Key Prediction Insights

Verona are narrowly favoured at home, with a 53.0% chance of victory against Lecce’s 24.0%, and the model pointing to a home win despite Verona sitting 19th and Lecce 18th in Serie A. The match is projected to be tight and cagey, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 58.0% probability. With both sides stuck in the relegation zone and separated only by goal difference and Pisa at the bottom, the stakes could hardly be higher.

Match Analysis

Verona come into this on a three-game losing run (0-1 vs Milan, 1-2 at Torino, 0-1 vs Fiorentina), but the performances have not been as poor as the points tally suggests. They have consistently out-shot their opponents — 13-6, 18-11 and 21-5 in those matches — and piled up corners as well, yet simply cannot find the net. That attacking bluntness is reflected in their recent averages: just 0.2 goals scored per game in the last five, from only 0.472 xG on average, and with no clean sheets, they are walking a thin line in every contest. Lecce’s form is also fragile: a 1-1 home draw with Fiorentina followed by a 0-2 defeat at Bologna and a 0-3 loss to Atalanta. They have at least been marginally more dangerous in front of goal than Verona, averaging 0.8 goals and 0.952 xG per match over their last five, but their defending is a real concern, conceding 1.6 goals and 1.852 xG on average with no shutouts in that period. Verona’s slightly better recent defensive metrics (1.2 goals conceded, 0.828 xG against) help explain why the home side are rated as favourites despite being lower in the table.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Lecce
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans clearly towards under 2.5 with a 58.0% probability, and the recent numbers back that under 2.5 call. Two of Verona’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (1-0, 1-2, 1-0 totals), while all three of Lecce’s stayed under as well (1-1, 0-2, 0-3). With Verona averaging only 0.2 goals scored and Lecce 0.8, and both teams’ xG figures under 1.0 per game in attack, an over 2.5 prediction would be going against the grain.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Lecce
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.24, suggesting a busy but not frantic afternoon from the flags. Verona’s recent home and away games have been corner-heavy from their side — 6-1 vs Milan, 6-3 at Torino, 9-1 vs Fiorentina — as they rely on wide play and volume crossing to create chances. Lecce have been more balanced (5-2, 6-8, 2-5), so the corners prediction of around nine fits a match where Verona do most of the pressing and Lecce look to break rather than sustain long attacks.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Lecce
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game sit at 23.99 in total, which aligns closely with recent patterns. Verona have racked up 13, 18 and 21 efforts in their last three, while allowing 6, 11 and 5; Lecce’s matches have been slightly more modest (14-5, 6-12, 11-16), but still open enough. This shots prediction ties in with the xG data: both teams are creating chances, just of relatively low quality, which explains why volume doesn’t yet translate into high scorelines.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Verona wins by X goals. Negative = Lecce wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Verona vs Lecce with expected spread of +0.5
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Verona vs Lecce
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected spread is +0.46 in Verona’s favour, meaning the goal spread prediction gives the hosts a small edge, roughly half a goal. Across their last three, Verona’s goal difference is -3 (0-1, 1-2, 0-1), while Lecce’s is worse at -5 (1-1, 0-2, 0-3), reinforcing the model’s slight lean towards the home side. When you combine Verona’s stronger defensive xG (0.828 conceded vs Lecce’s 1.852) with a 53.0% home-win probability, the expected spread of just under a goal feels consistent.

Final Prediction

Verona’s edge comes from their underlying control of games — more shots, more corners and slightly tighter defending — even if results have not yet followed. Lecce’s leaky back line and heavier xG against tilt this relegation scrap towards the Bentegodi side. The key factor to watch will be whether Verona can finally convert their territorial dominance into goals, or whether Lecce can exploit Verona’s desperation on the counter.

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