Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Milan Prediction - 19 Apr 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots

Verona

Home Team
24%
VS

Milan

Away Team
54%
Draw: 21%
Over 2.5: 50%
Under 2.5: 50%
Goal: 44%
No Goal: 56%
Expected Corners: 9.4
Expected Shots: 25.6

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 32 24 3 5 75 29 46 75
2 Napoli 32 20 6 6 48 31 17 66
3 Milan 32 18 9 5 47 27 20 63
4 Juventus 32 17 9 6 55 29 26 60
5 Como 32 16 10 6 56 26 30 58
6 Roma 32 18 3 11 45 28 17 57
7 Atalanta 32 14 11 7 44 28 16 53
8 Bologna 32 14 6 12 42 37 5 48
9 Lazio 32 11 11 10 32 30 2 44
10 Udinese 32 12 7 13 38 42 -4 43
11 Sassuolo 32 12 6 14 39 43 -4 42
12 Torino 32 11 6 15 37 54 -17 39
13 Genoa 32 9 9 14 38 45 -7 36
14 Parma 32 8 12 12 23 40 -17 36
15 Fiorentina 32 8 11 13 37 44 -7 35
16 Cagliari 32 8 9 15 33 44 -11 33
17 Cremonese 32 6 9 17 26 47 -21 27
18 Lecce 32 7 6 19 21 45 -24 27
19 Verona 32 3 9 20 23 55 -32 18
20 Pisa 32 2 12 18 23 58 -35 18

Recent Trends

Verona L L L L W

  • Last Match: L vs Torino (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Fiorentina (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Genoa (Goals: 0 - 2)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 1)

Milan L L W L W

  • Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Napoli (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Torino (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Lazio (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: W vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 0)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.44
xGA (avg) 1.05
Clean Sheets 0

Milan

xG (avg) 2.27
xGA (avg) 0.77
Clean Sheets 1

Key Prediction Insights

Milan are firm favourites here: the away win is given a 54.0% probability, against just 24.0% for Verona, with Stefano Pioli’s side looking to tighten their grip on 3rd place against a team stuck in 19th and deep in relegation trouble. The under 2.5 goals prediction is marginally preferred at 50.0%, suggesting a tight, controlled contest rather than a shoot-out. With Milan chasing the Champions League spots and Verona desperate to escape the bottom three, the stakes are clear.

Match Analysis

Verona come into this on a three-game losing streak, and the pattern is depressing but familiar: narrow defeats to Fiorentina (0-1) and Atalanta (0-1) and a more open 1-2 loss at Torino. They have competed in terms of territory and volume – out-cornering Fiorentina 9-1 and outshooting them 21-5 – but lack punch in the box, scoring just once across those three fixtures. That reflects their broader trend: only 0.4 goals scored per game over the last five, from an average of 0.444 expected goals, and no clean sheets in that stretch. Milan also arrive off the back of consecutive defeats, 0-1 at Napoli and a heavy 0-3 home loss to Udinese, either side of a 3-2 win over Torino. The underlying numbers, though, tell a different story: over their last five matches they average 1.4 goals scored, 0.6 conceded, with a very strong 2.274 expected goals created and just 0.774 expected goals allowed. In short, Milan are consistently producing chances and limiting opponents; recent scorelines probably understate their control of games. That contrast in xG profiles – Milan’s attack versus Verona’s blunt edge – is the clearest indicator of where this game may be decided.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Milan
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans slightly towards an under 2.5 goals prediction at 50.0%, and the recent form backs that up. Two of Verona’s last three matches finished under 2.5 goals (0-1, 0-1), with only the 1-2 defeat at Torino going over. Milan have seen two of their last three go over (3-2 vs Torino, 0-3 vs Udinese), but those feel like outliers against their generally tight defensive numbers. Verona’s meagre 0.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, combined with their 0.444 xG for and 1.05 xG against, suggest a low-scoring contest unless Milan convert their superior 2.274 xG into early goals.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Milan
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The predicted corners total is 9.36, which fits nicely with how these two have been playing. Verona’s last three have produced 9 corners at Torino (6-3), 10 at home to Fiorentina (9-1), and 6 at Atalanta (4-2), showing they can rack up corners when they push high, especially at home. Milan’s games have been similar in volume – 7 vs Udinese (4-3), 7 at Napoli (3-4), and 10 vs Torino (4-6) – so a corners prediction around nine looks well supported. With Milan likely to control territory and Verona forced into deep defending, sustained pressure from wide areas should keep corner counts around that expected mark.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Milan
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this match is 25.57, which is consistent with both teams’ recent numbers. Verona’s last three have seen them very active: 18 attempts at Torino, 21 vs Fiorentina, 12 at Atalanta – but with very poor finishing. Milan have fired 20 shots vs Udinese, 7 at Napoli and 15 against Torino, regularly reaching double figures while also allowing efforts at the other end. Given Milan’s strong attacking xG of 2.274 per game and Verona’s tendency to shoot often but inefficiently, a shots prediction in the mid-20s seems realistic, with the away side likely producing the higher share.

Final Prediction

Milan’s edge lies in their superior quality in both penalty areas and a far healthier underlying profile: stronger xG, tighter defence, and a significantly higher league position (3rd vs 19th). Verona’s work rate and volume of efforts can’t hide a chronic lack of cutting edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Milan can turn their territorial and xG dominance into an early goal; if they do, Verona may struggle to find a response.

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