Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Napoli Prediction - 28 Feb 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Shots

Verona

Home Team
8%
VS

Napoli

Away Team
84%
Draw: 8%
Over 2.5: 48%
Under 2.5: 52%
Goal: 51%
No Goal: 49%
Expected Shots: 23.5

Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 26 21 1 4 62 21 41 64
2 Milan 26 15 9 2 41 20 21 54
3 Napoli 26 15 5 6 39 27 12 50
4 Roma 26 16 2 8 34 16 18 50
5 Juventus 26 13 7 6 43 25 18 46
6 Como 26 12 9 5 41 19 22 45
7 Atalanta 26 12 9 5 36 22 14 45
8 Bologna 26 10 6 10 35 32 3 36
9 Sassuolo 26 10 5 11 32 35 -3 35
10 Lazio 26 8 10 8 26 25 1 34
11 Udinese 26 9 5 12 28 39 -11 32
12 Parma 26 8 8 10 19 31 -12 32
13 Cagliari 26 7 8 11 28 35 -7 29
14 Genoa 26 6 9 11 32 37 -5 27
15 Torino 26 7 6 13 25 47 -22 27
16 Fiorentina 26 5 9 12 30 39 -9 24
17 Cremonese 26 5 9 12 21 36 -15 24
18 Lecce 26 6 6 14 17 33 -16 24
19 Pisa 26 1 12 13 20 43 -23 15
20 Verona 26 2 9 15 19 46 -27 15

Recent Trends

Verona L L D L L

  • Last Match: L vs Sassuolo (Goals: 0 - 3)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Parma (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Pisa (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: L vs Cagliari (Goals: 0 - 4)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Udinese (Goals: 1 - 3)

Napoli L D W W L

  • Last Match: L vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 2)
  • 2nd Last Match: D vs Roma (Goals: 2 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Genoa (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 2 - 1)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Juventus (Goals: 0 - 3)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

Average Expected Goals (xG): 0.64
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.25
# Clean Sheets: 1

Napoli

Average Expected Goals (xG): 1.44
Average Expected Goals Against (xGA): 1.18
# Clean Sheets: 0

Key Prediction Insights

Napoli are clear favourites here, with an 84.0% probability of taking all three points away to bottom‑placed Verona, who have just 8.0% chance of an upset and the same 8.0% likelihood of a draw. Third in Serie A on 50 points, Napoli are pushing for the Champions League spots, while Verona sit 20th on 15 points and are fighting for survival. The model leans towards a Napoli win in a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction (48.0% for under) suggesting a controlled, rather than explosive, contest.

Match Analysis

Verona come into this match in dire form: two defeats and a draw in their last three. They were comfortably beaten 3-0 at Sassuolo and 2-1 at Parma, and even at home they failed to break down Pisa in a 0-0 stalemate. The underlying numbers underline their problems in the final third: across the last five games they average only 0.6 goals scored and 0.636 expected goals, and they’ve managed just one clean sheet while conceding 2.0 goals per game. Napoli, by contrast, look far more dangerous even if their recent results have been mixed – a 3-2 win at Genoa, a 2-2 home draw with Roma, and a narrow 2-1 loss at Atalanta. They’ve hit 1.6 goals per game over their last five and generated 1.438 xG on average, figures that suggest a steady stream of chances. Defensively they are not watertight, conceding 1.8 goals and 1.18 xG per match in that span, but they should still have enough to handle a Verona attack that has been blunt for weeks.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Napoli
Goals in last 5 matches
The call here is under 2.5, with a 48.0% probability edging out the over 2.5 prediction. Two of Verona’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (3-0, 2-1, 0-0), and their low attacking output – 0.6 goals and just 0.636 xG on average – points towards another low‑scoring performance. Napoli have seen all of their last three go over 2.5, but their xG profile (1.438 for, 1.18 against) is more modest than those scorelines suggest, and against a deep‑lying, desperate Verona side this could tighten up.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Napoli
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots total is 23.51, suggesting a game with a reasonable but not frantic level of goal attempts. Verona’s last three have featured 20, 31 and 15 total shots, while Napoli’s have seen 20, 20 and 26, which matches well with this shots prediction. With Napoli averaging 1.438 xG from their recent shot volumes and Verona producing far less from their efforts, the visitors should account for the majority of the expected shots.

Final Prediction

Napoli’s stronger league position, more reliable attack, and superior underlying numbers give them a clear edge over a Verona side stuck at the bottom and struggling in both boxes. The key theme to watch will be whether Verona can withstand Napoli’s pressure long enough to keep the game within one goal, or whether the visitors’ attacking quality eventually breaks their resistance despite the expectation of a relatively low‑scoring affair.

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