Serie A 2025-2026: Verona vs Roma Prediction - 24 May 2026

Result | Under-Over 2.5 | Corners | Shots | Spread

Verona

Home Team
21%
VS

Roma

Away Team
59%
Draw: 20%
Over 2.5: 42%
Under 2.5: 58%
Goal: 50%
No Goal: 50%
Expected Corners: 9.6
Expected Shots: 24.7
Expected Spread: -1.2

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Current Standings

Pos Team Pl W D L GF GA GD Pts
1 Inter 37 27 5 5 86 32 54 86
2 Napoli 37 22 7 8 57 36 21 73
3 Milan 37 20 10 7 52 33 19 70
4 Roma 37 22 4 11 57 31 26 70
5 Como 37 19 11 7 61 28 33 68
6 Juventus 37 19 11 7 59 32 27 68
7 Atalanta 37 15 13 9 50 35 15 58
8 Bologna 37 16 7 14 46 43 3 55
9 Lazio 37 13 12 12 39 39 0 51
10 Udinese 37 14 8 15 45 47 -2 50
11 Sassuolo 37 14 7 16 46 49 -3 49
12 Torino 37 12 8 17 42 61 -19 44
13 Parma 37 10 12 15 27 46 -19 42
14 Genoa 37 10 11 16 41 50 -9 41
15 Fiorentina 37 9 14 14 40 49 -9 41
16 Cagliari 37 10 10 17 38 52 -14 40
17 Lecce 37 9 8 20 27 50 -23 35
18 Cremonese 37 8 10 19 31 53 -22 34
19 Verona 37 3 12 22 25 59 -34 21
20 Pisa 37 2 12 23 25 69 -44 18

Recent Trends

Verona D L D D L

  • Last Match: D vs Inter (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 2nd Last Match: L vs Como (Goals: 0 - 1)
  • 3rd Last Match: D vs Juventus (Goals: 1 - 1)
  • 4th Last Match: D vs Lecce (Goals: 0 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: L vs Milan (Goals: 0 - 1)

Roma W W W W D

  • Last Match: W vs Lazio (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 2nd Last Match: W vs Parma (Goals: 3 - 2)
  • 3rd Last Match: W vs Fiorentina (Goals: 4 - 0)
  • 4th Last Match: W vs Bologna (Goals: 2 - 0)
  • 5th Last Match: D vs Atalanta (Goals: 1 - 1)

Advanced Metrics (Last 5 games)

Verona

xG (avg) 0.71
xGA (avg) 0.79
Clean Sheets 1

Roma

xG (avg) 1.36
xGA (avg) 1.68
Clean Sheets 3

Key Prediction Insights

Roma are clear favourites here: the model gives them a 59.0% chance of victory away to Verona, with the hosts at just 21.0% and the draw at 20.0%. Roma arrive in Verona sitting 4th on 70 points and fighting for the Champions League, while Verona are 19th on 21 points and already staring at relegation. The outlook leans towards a tight game, with an under 2.5 goals prediction at 42.0% and no both-teams-to-score favored (50.0% probability of no goal for at least one side).

Match Analysis

Verona’s recent form underlines why they are 19th: just three wins all season and no victory in their last three, with draws away at Inter (1-1) and Juventus (1-1) sandwiching a 0-1 home defeat to Como. Interestingly, they’ve been stubborn rather than chaotic – those three matches produced only four goals in total, and the advanced numbers back that up: across the last five games they’ve averaged 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with xG of 0.708 for and 0.788 against. They’re not being blown away, but they rarely create enough to win. Roma arrive in far livelier mood, having taken three straight wins: 2-0 at home in the derby against Lazio, a 3-2 away win at Parma and a 4-0 demolition of Fiorentina in Rome. Over the last five, they’ve averaged 1.8 goals scored but 2.2 conceded, suggesting an open, risk-taking side, while their xG sits at 1.36 for and 1.68 against. That blend of sharper attacking quality and a defence that still gives chances explains both their strong league position and why a controlled away win – rather than a goalfest – looks most likely in Verona.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals Prediction

Recent Goals Trends

Total goals per match in the last 5 games. Green bars = Over 2.5, Red bars = Under 2.5

Verona
Goals in last 5 matches
Roma
Goals in last 5 matches
The model leans towards under 2.5 with a 42.0% probability, and the recent numbers support that under 2.5 call despite Roma’s attacking upturn. Two of Verona’s last three games finished under 2.5 goals (1-1, 0-1, 1-1), reflecting their meagre attacking output and decent defensive organisation. Roma, by contrast, have seen two of their last three go over 2.5 (3-2 at Parma, 4-0 vs Fiorentina, plus the 2-0 derby), but their five-game averages of 1.8 scored, 2.2 conceded and xG of 1.36 for, 1.68 against point more to efficiency than chaos here, especially against a low-scoring Verona.

Corners Prediction

Recent Corners Trends

Corners won (green) and conceded (orange) in the last 5 games. Expected corners shown as reference line.

Verona
Corners in last 5 matches
Roma
Corners in last 5 matches

Corners Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each corner count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of corners ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected total corners for this match is 9.61, a mid-range corners prediction that fits both sides’ recent patterns. Verona’s last three saw wildly different corner counts – 2-10 at Inter, 7-7 at home to Como, and 1-14 at Juventus – showing they often concede territory and allow opponents to rack up corners. Roma’s last three brought 8-3 vs Lazio, 6-3 at Parma and 4-5 vs Fiorentina, consistent with a proactive side that pushes full-backs high; the predicted corners figure reflects Roma controlling the game while Verona sit deep.

Shots Prediction

Recent Shots Trends

Shots taken (blue) and faced (red) in the last 5 games. Expected shots shown as reference line.

Verona
Shots in last 5 matches
Roma
Shots in last 5 matches

Shots Probability Distribution

Distribution
Probability of each shot count outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of shots ≤ X
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected shots for this game stand at 24.71, and that shots prediction lines up neatly with both teams’ recent tendencies. Verona’s last three produced 14-17, 11-11 and 7-29 in shots, underlining how often they are outgunned but still manage a handful of efforts themselves. Roma’s recent run – 16-6 vs Lazio, 15-11 at Parma, 14-4 vs Fiorentina – suggests their xG of 1.36 going forward is built on a steady flow of chances, which should keep the overall expected shots tally in the mid‑20s.

Goal Spread Prediction

Goal Spread Probability Distribution

Positive = Verona wins by X goals. Negative = Roma wins by X goals.

Distribution
Probability of each goal difference outcome
Goal spread probability distribution for Verona vs Roma with expected spread of -1.2
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of goal difference ≤ X
Cumulative goal spread probability chart for Verona vs Roma
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
The expected goal spread prediction is -1.18 (home minus away), clearly favouring Roma to win by around a goal. Verona’s last three have all been decided by a single goal or ended level (1-1, 0-1, 1-1), but across the season their -34 goal difference shows a team generally outclassed. Roma’s recent results – +2 vs Lazio, +1 at Parma, +4 vs Fiorentina – mirror their 26-goal positive differential over the campaign; combined with a 59.0% win probability, the expected spread underlines their superior attacking and overall balance.

Final Prediction

Roma’s edge comes from their far greater scoring threat and their position in the table: 4th, chasing Europe, against a Verona side ranked 19th and struggling badly in front of goal. If Roma impose their usual tempo and convert a fraction of the chances they’ve been creating, their quality in both boxes should tell. The key factor to watch will be whether Verona’s compact defensive shape, backed by solid recent xG-against numbers, can frustrate Roma long enough to turn this into the kind of low‑scoring scrap that might upset the odds.

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