NBA 2025-2026: Memphis Grizzlies vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Memphis Grizzlies
Home Team
32.9%
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves
Away Team
67.1%
Key Prediction Insights
The Minnesota Timberwolves are predicted to win (67.1% probability). Expected starting fives — Memphis: Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jock Landale; Minnesota: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Jaden McDaniels, Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The model expects a combined 231.17 points, pointing to a fairly high-scoring game and a brisk pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -4.67, which gives the home team a roughly 4.7-point edge — in this projection that favors Minnesota.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
231.2
Most likely outcome: 231 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Memphis Grizzlies - Minnesota Timberwolves)
-4.7
Most likely outcome: -5 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
New to probability charts?
Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves
Game Analysis
Memphis enters on a three-game losing skid: 114-131 to Minnesota, 106-114 to New Orleans, and 97-112 to Charlotte. Their scoring has dipped from 114 to 106 to 97 across those games, suggesting offensive struggles recently. Minnesota is riding a three-game winning streak, scoring 131, 123, and 118 in their last three outings and showing a strong, consistent offense.
Looking at the projected starting units, Memphis’s five average offensive rating is 116.88 and defensive rating is 118.58, with an average 15.20 points made per starter. Minnesota’s starters average a 121.58 offensive rating and a 112.74 defensive rating, with 18.12 points made per starter. Minnesota’s starting five outpaces Memphis on both offense and defense in these averages, driven by Anthony Edwards (29.425 points) and Rudy Gobert’s strong defensive rating (109.3).
Final Prediction
Minnesota’s higher offensive and lower defensive ratings for their starters, combined with momentum from three straight wins, give them the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: how Memphis attempts to slow Anthony Edwards and whether they can limit Rudy Gobert’s impact inside.
Get Daily NBA Predictions
Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven NBA predictions directly on your phone.
Join Our Telegram Channel