NBA 2025-2026: Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Indiana Pacers
Home Team
44.7%
VS
Utah Jazz
Away Team
55.3%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Utah Jazz to win (55.3% probability). Expected starting fives — Indiana Pacers: Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy, Kam Jones, Jarace Walker, Jay Huff; Utah Jazz: Isaiah Collier, Cody Williams, Ace Bailey, Lauri Markkanen, Kyle Filipowski.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined total is 229.15 points, suggesting a fairly high-scoring affair and a game that could play at a quick pace. The expected spread (Home - Away) is -0.89, giving a very slight edge (about 0.9 points) to the home team, Utah.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.2
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Indiana Pacers - Utah Jazz)
-0.9
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Indiana comes in 2-1 over the last three: a 129-124 win over Atlanta and 113-110 win at Chicago, followed by a 114-118 loss to Houston. Those scores show the Pacers can put up points recently while keeping games close. Utah is on a three-game skid: 100-107 vs Toronto, 99-109 vs Brooklyn, and 124-140 vs Golden State, a stretch where their offense and defense both showed inconsistency.
Looking at the expected starting fives, Indiana’s group averages an offensive rating of 102.90, defensive rating of 117.98, and 6.21 average points made per starter. Utah’s starters average a higher offensive rating at 108.58, a worse defensive rating at 123.80, and 12.64 average points made per starter — driven heavily by Lauri Markkanen’s 27.39 points made. That gap in scoring from starters favors Utah’s ability to outscore opponents even if their defense has been leaky.
Final Prediction
Utah has the edge because its starting five projects more scoring punch, led by Markkanen, and the game’s expected high total suits that strength. Key factor to watch: can Utah’s starters convert their higher offensive outputs before Indiana’s defense (individuals like Jarace Walker and Jay Huff) can slow them down.
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