NBA 2025-2026: Phoenix Suns vs Philadelphia 76ers: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Phoenix Suns
Home Team
54.0%
VS
Philadelphia 76ers
Away Team
46.0%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the Phoenix Suns to win with a 54.0% probability. Expected starting five — Phoenix Suns: Collin Gillespie (13.7451), Devin Booker (25.4390), Dillon Brooks (20.9783), Royce O'Neale (10.2115), Mark Williams (12.2553). Philadelphia 76ers: Tyrese Maxey (28.8163), VJ Edgecombe (15.1915), Dominick Barlow (8.4878), Kelly Oubre Jr. (14.0), Joel Embiid (26.4).
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The combined expected total is 225.28 points, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game where both offenses should find room to operate. The expected spread is Home - Away = 2.62, meaning the home team is projected to have about a 2.62-point edge.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
225.3
Most likely outcome: 225 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Phoenix Suns - Philadelphia 76ers)
2.6
Most likely outcome: 2 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Phoenix is 1-2 over its last three games: a 97-101 loss to Golden State, a 130-125 win over Portland, and a 93-117 loss to the Clippers. That sequence shows offensive bursts (130) but also games where they struggled to score (93). Philadelphia is 2-1 in its last three: a 115-119 loss to the Lakers, then wins of 113-94 (Warriors) and 128-113 (Clippers), pointing to stronger recent form on both ends.
Looking at the expected starting units, Phoenix’s five average offensive rating is 120.60 and defensive rating is 114.06, with an average points-made per starter of about 16.53. Philadelphia’s starters average an offensive rating of 119.28 and defensive rating of 115.20, with about 18.58 points made per starter. That paints Phoenix as a hair more efficient on offense and a touch better on defense by these numbers, while Philly’s starters bring higher individual scoring.
Final Prediction
Phoenix’s slight edge in offensive and defensive ratings helps explain the projected win despite Philadelphia’s recent form. Key factor to watch: how the Suns limit Philly’s starters (especially Maxey and Embiid) and whether Phoenix can reproduce the offensive balance shown in their 130-point game.
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