NBA 2025-2026: Portland Trail Blazers vs Memphis Grizzlies: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
Portland Trail Blazers
Home Team
47.9%
VS
Memphis Grizzlies
Away Team
52.1%
Key Prediction Insights
Memphis Grizzlies are projected to win (52.1% probability). Expected starting fives: Portland — Jrue Holiday, Deni Avdija, Sidy Cissoko, Toumani Camara, Donovan Clingan; Memphis — Cedric Coward, Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, GG Jackson II, Santi Aldama.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The game’s expected combined total is 239.31 points, suggesting a fast-paced, high-scoring contest where both teams can put up points. The expected spread is Home - Away = -0.89, a very small edge that favors the visiting Memphis squad by about 0.9 points.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
239.3
Most likely outcome: 239 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (Portland Trail Blazers - Memphis Grizzlies)
-0.9
Most likely outcome: -1 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
Portland is 1-2 in its last three games: a 135-115 win over Memphis, then losses of 125-130 to Phoenix and 111-130 to Cleveland. That sequence shows Portland can score in bunches (135 points in the win) but has also allowed 130 points twice, indicating defensive lapses. Memphis is 2-1 over the same span: a 115-135 loss at Portland followed by wins of 129-125 over Sacramento and 137-128 over Minnesota, pointing to recent strong offensive outings.
Looking at the starters’ numbers, Portland’s five average an offensive rating of 117.68 and a defensive rating of 117.14, with an average of 14.16 points made per starter. Memphis’s projected five average an offensive rating of 117.38 and a defensive rating of 112.66, with an average of 14.11 points made per starter. Offensively the units are nearly identical on paper, but Memphis’s better average defensive rating (112.66 vs 117.14) gives them an edge on that end.
Final Prediction
Memphis’s slight advantage in defense and recent high-scoring wins are why they get the nod at 52.1%. Key factor to watch: whether Portland can stop Memphis’s scoring runs — if not, the Grizzlies’ defensive edge should decide the outcome.
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