NBA 2025-2026: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks: Winner probability, Total Points & Spread
San Antonio Spurs
Home Team
79.1%
VS
Dallas Mavericks
Away Team
20.9%
Key Prediction Insights
The model picks the San Antonio Spurs to win with a 79.1% probability. Expected starting five — San Antonio Spurs: De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama. Dallas Mavericks: Max Christie, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford.
Total Points and Spread Analysis
The projected combined score is 229.39 points, pointing to an above-average scoring game and a fairly open pace. The expected spread (home − away) is 10.63 points, a double-digit edge for the home side; combined with the win probability, that margin reinforces the projection that the Spurs will win comfortably.
Total Points Predictions
Expected Total Points in Game
229.4
Most likely outcome: 229 points
Total Points Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each total points outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of total points ≤ X
Spread Predictions
Expected Spread (San Antonio Spurs - Dallas Mavericks)
10.6
Most likely outcome: 10 points
Spread Probability Distribution
Distribution
Probability of each spread outcome
Cumulative Probability (CDF)
Probability of spread ≤ X
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Game Analysis
San Antonio enters on a three-game winning streak: a 135–123 win over Dallas, 116–106 at Oklahoma City, and 112–103 vs. Orlando. They’ve been consistently clearing the 100-point mark while holding opponents in the low-to-mid 100s. Dallas is on a three-game skid after that 123–135 loss to San Antonio, a 100–110 loss to Boston, and a 107–111 loss to Houston, suggesting offensive or defensive issues have been persistent over the last stretch.
Looking at the projected starters, the Spurs’ five average an offensive rating of 115.26, a defensive rating of 111.34, and average points made of about 16.05 each — led by Victor Wembanyama’s 24.16. The Mavericks’ projected five average an offensive rating of 112.22, defensive rating of 113.06, and about 14.18 points made each, with Cooper Flagg at 20.38 on average. Those numbers show San Antonio with a slight offensive edge and a clearer defensive advantage from the group averages.
Final Prediction
San Antonio’s recent form and the starting-five profile give them the edge in this projection. Key factor to watch: how Dallas defends Wembanyama and whether their starters can slow San Antonio’s scoring balance.
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